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Technical Update - Gold and Silver: Minor correction before uptrend likely to resume. Copper range bound
Kim Cramer Larsson
Technical Analyst, Saxo Bank
Summary: Minor correction unfolding in Gold and Silver before likely resuming uptrend. Copper range bound with underlying bullish sentiment
Gold seems to have been rejected at the 0.50 retracement at around 1,985. A bit unusual at for Commodities (and FX) especially Gold and Silver retracements around the 0.618 is often twhere corrections occur.
However, a minor correction down to 1,940 – 1,930 i.e., the 0.50 -0.618 retracement could be seen.
Moving Averages seem not to be agreeing on the direction and underlying sentiment; 21 and 55 are rising where as 100 is declining. Then again 200 is rising.
That tells us the short-term trend is up but medium-term to longer term is down, and finally the longer-term is up. A conflict for sure.
That means a minor correction down to, or maybe a spike below, the 21 Moving Average is likely.
But since the RSI is showing positive sentiment without divergence short-to medium term trend is up. Gold should likely test the 2K level in 1-2 weeks.
To demolish this bullish picture a close below 1,890 is needed.
If closing above 2K Gold will also be closing above the Cloud adding to the bullish picture that would have potential to 2,040-2,075
Silver is testing support at around 24,50 but could dip below to 23.75 without reversing the short-term uptrend. 21 and 100 (and 200) Moving Averages are on the rise whereas 55 is still declining. Another conflict between the varies time horizons.
However, RSI is positive with no divergence suggesting likely continued uptrend. An uptrend that could lift Silver to 26-26.50 area.
Copper is range bound Copper could be range bound between 396 and 370, hovering primarily around 382 which seems to be a kind of a Pivot level.
A close below 368 will likely fuel a sell-off down to test support at around 355.
A close above 395.30 is likely to fuel a rally higher to strong resistance at around 417.
Positive RSI is indicating Copper to move higher.
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