Quarterly Outlook
Macro outlook: Trump 2.0: Can the US have its cake and eat it, too?
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Technical Update - Gold at strong resistance. Silver lagging Gold strength. Platinum building uptrend. Copper testing key support
Kim Cramer Larsson
Technical Analyst, Saxo Bank
Summary: Gold testing strong resistance at 1,985, expect a correction
Silver in uptrend but struggling to get the decisive break through higher
Platinum slowly building uptrend but can it keep building or will it slide back?
Copper again-again testing key support at 354.50
Gold XAUUSD only paused for a short while at the resistance at around 1,946 before shooting higher. Now testing the strong resistance at around 1,985 a correction should be expected.
Daily RSI is above 60 i.e. showing positive sentiment suggesting higher Gold levels area likely but the weekly RSI is just testing the 60 threshold indicating a correction before moving higher
If Gold is being rejected at the 1,985 resistance a correction could take it down to the support at around 1,946. However, a dip down to test the falling trendline and the 0.382 retracement at around 1,918 should not be ruled out.
Current level is also around the 0.618 retracement of the May through October down trend – see weekly chart.
Medium-term Gold has resumed its uptrend, it is back above the Cloud and seems to get a higher weekly close
Silver XAGUSD is trying to get past the 0.786 retracement at 23.11 but seems to be struggling to break above the 100 and 200 daily Moving Averages. It could also be a bit of a struggle to break back above the Cloud area (shaded area)
However, if the daily RSI is closing above the 60 threshold sentiment has switched to positive supporting the bullish picture on Silver strongly. A close above 23.78 will confirm uptrend.
An uptrend with short-term potential to 25.25 – 26.00
If Silver is sliding back below 22.35 the bearish trend is likely to resume
Platinum XPTUSD has broken above its very short-term falling trendline and seems to be building an uptrend/rising channel pattern.
Further upside could be seen towards strong resistance area 940-950 but the declining 55, 100 and 200 Moving Averages will likely put a damper on the upside potential
Copper is a re-peat of the latest update. The metal once again-again testing key support at 354.50. If closing below it could fuel a sell-off lower with no support until around 323-313
If Copper Bulls can once again manage to keep Copper above 354.50 a move to test the upper falling trendline could be seen.
On the medium-term (weekly chart) Copper has closed below its lower rising trendline thus broken bearish out of its Triangle like pattern and is in a downtrend both short- and medium-term. However, for further down trend potential a close below 354.50 is needed
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