Quarterly Outlook
Macro outlook: Trump 2.0: Can the US have its cake and eat it, too?
John J. Hardy
Global Head of Macro Strategy
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Technical Update - Precious metals on a knife’s edge: Gold, Silver and Platinum
Kim Cramer Larsson
Technical Analyst, Saxo Bank
Summary: Precious metals on a knife’s edge. Are the corrections over or are the turning turning in to bearish trends. US CPI numbers this afternoon could be determining the direction
Will Gold drop back to or even below 2K?
Can buyers hold Silver above 22.50?
Will Platinum bounce after big corrective move or drop back below 900?
Gold XAUUSD found support at the 0.618 Fibo retracement of the December bullish move at 2,017 but have not been able to resume uptrend.
RSI performed divergence during the December bull market suggesting that bull move was the exhaustive move and Gold is likely to reverse. However, the January bearish move could merely just be a correction. A correction that could take Gold lower. A break below 2,017 is likely to push the precious metal to the 0.786 retracement at 1,997
If Gold is dropping further closing below 1,973 it would be in a confirmed downtrend
If Gold is managing to bounce from the 0.618 retracement, 2,064 is key resistance. That level would also be within few cents at 2,061 from the 0.618 retracement of the bearish move A close above 2,064 could push Gold to the 1.382 projection at 2,116 possibly to the 1.618 projection at 2,132
Silver XAGUSD Past five trading day has been hovering around the 0.786 retracement at 23 USD. Silver being below the Cloud and RSI in negative sentiment has the potential to move lower but there seems to be buyers around the 23-22.50 level keeping the precious metal afloat.
A dip down to 22.50 is not unlikely but with the selling pressure seemingly easing a rebound could be in the cards. A close below is likely to push Silver to around 22.
If Silver can get back above the 55 and 200 Daily Moving Averages, there is likely more upside potential in the cards Platinum XPTUSD correction could be exhausting just above the 0.786 retracement at 916. A dip down to test it is not unlikely, however.
Currently RSI is still above 40 threshold but if it is closing below Platinum is in negative sentiment . If that occurs Platinum could collapse further to 890 possibly lower.
A rebound from the 0.786 retracement the uptrend could be resuming. A close back above the 200 DMA could give energy to Platinum back to the towards 1K
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