Quarterly Outlook
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John J. Hardy
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Technical Update - Bitcoin and Ethereum breaking bullish. Could lift Coinbase
Kim Cramer Larsson
Technical Analyst, Saxo Bank
- Bitcoin is breaking bullish out of its corrective pattern and could have upside potential to USD 82-84,000
- Ethereum is testing resistance. A break above paves the road towards USD 4,730
- Coinbase could be lifted by higher crypto prices, potentially cancelling top and reversal pattern and could eye all-time highs
Bitcoin BTCUSD is breaking bullish out of its corrective symmetrical triangle pattern and is currently above minor resistance at around USD 71,790.
If breaking above all-time highs at around USD 73,835, Bitcoin has upside potential to the 1.618 projection of the top to the bottom of the triangle at USD 81,909, but could move as high as to the 1.764 projection at USD 83,816, which is also the same distance from the top to the bottom of the triangle – as illustrated by the two vertical blue dotted lines.
Bitcoin could experience a throwback after the breakout. A throwback is where the traded instrument is sliding back, testing the upper (falling) trendline of the pattern from the upper side. Bitcoin should not close back below, which would then hurt the upside potential. However, to reverse this bullish outlook, a close below USD 64,500 is necessary.
RSI is, at the time of writing, above the falling trendline and back above the 60 thresholds, supporting the view of Bitcoin resuming an uptrend
Ethereum ETHUSD is testing key resistance at around USD 3,677 and the 0.618 retracement.
A break above is likely to fuel a rally towards all-time highs at around USD 4,092. Some resistance at the 0.786 retracement at USD 3,870.
If breaking above USD 4,092, there is further upside potential to the 1.382 projection at USD 4,486, possibly to the 1.618 projection at USD 4,730.
If ETH is closing above USD 3,697, the strength indicator RSI is also likely closing back above the 60 thresholds, confirming the uptrend.
Conversely, a close below USD 3,200 is necessary to reverse the bullish picture
Coinbase
If the bullish scenario is playing out in Bitcoin, it could lift Coinbase back to its March peak at USD 283.48 and higher.
If closing above USD 283.48, it will cancel the top and reversal pattern in the making on the weekly chart, and there will be room up to all-time highs at around USD 368.90.
A daily close below USD 216.16 will establish a downtrend, demolishing the bullish scenario
If the bullish scenario is playing out in Bitcoin, it could lift Coinbase back to its March peak at USD 283.48 and higher.
If closing above USD 283.48, it will cancel the top and reversal pattern in the making on the weekly chart, and there will be room up to all-time highs at around USD 368.90.
A daily close below USD 216.16 will establish a downtrend, demolishing the bullish scenario
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