Quarterly Outlook
Macro outlook: Trump 2.0: Can the US have its cake and eat it, too?
John J. Hardy
Global Head of Macro Strategy
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A technical update on the Nasdaq 100
Kim Cramer Larsson
Technical Analyst, Saxo Bank
Summary: Equities have been on a roll and the Nasdaq 100 index is no exception. But where does it go from here – higher still or a retreat? Here's what a technical analysis of the charts says.
The Nasdaq 100 index has rebounded and recovered what it lost during the December sell-off. It's hovering around the 200-day simple moving average and is close to testing the resistance at around 7.100. (The S&P 500 and Dow Jones indices look almost identical in their behaviour.)
The Nasdaq 100 has formed what looks like a rising wedge pattern ripe for a correction ie. a bearish break of the lower rising trend line. However, I do believe we could see US equities move higher over the next couple of days towards the resistance at around 7.200. Ideally a top should be in place Friday or Monday.
RSI and MACD are bullish with minor divergences. That divergence could, however, be traded out over the next couple of days. Watch out for RSI breaking its rising trend line as it could be first indication of a coming correction.
An alternative scenario which sometimes occurs could be a sideways break out only for the index trying to get back above the lower rising trend line, leading people to believe it was a false bearish breakout. The market would makes a new exhaustive high and then turnaround. Let’s see how it will play out. Keep those stops close. A close below 6.970 could be first indication that a bear correction is unfolding.
Support at 6.836 and around 6.600.
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