CrowdStrike jumps on earnings as Magnificent Seven stocks crack

CrowdStrike jumps on earnings as Magnificent Seven stocks crack

Equities 5 minutes to read
Picture of Peter Garnry
Peter Garnry

Chief Investment Strategist

Key points:

  • CrowdStrike earnings: Reported Q4 earnings of $845 million, beating estimates of $840 million. Adjusted EPS was $0.95, beating estimates of $0.83. FY25 revenue guidance is $3.92-$3.99 billion, in line with estimates of $3.94 billion. Demand remains strong due to CrowdStrike's "all on one platform" approach and geopolitical risks related to the war in Ukraine.

  • Magnificent Seven stocks: Cracks are emerging, with the group down 2.4% in the past two trading days compared to the S&P 500 down 1.1%. The worst performers have been Apple and Tesla. Apple is suffering from weak iPhone sales and big uncertainties about the next big category. Tesla's decline is likely due to retail investors shifting their focus to AI stocks and increased competition in the EV market.

CrowdStrike gains 24% pre-market on Q4 earnings

Crowdstrike, the second most valuable cyber security company in the world, reported Q4 earnings yesterday after the US market close. Here are the key take-aways:

  • Q4 revenue $845mn vs est. $840mn
  • Q4 adj. EPS $0.95 vs est. $0.83
  • FY25 revenue guidance $3.92-3.99bn vs est. $3.94bn
  • Demand remains strong due to “all on one platform” approach
  • Geopolitical risks related to the war in Ukraine keeps demand up

As the chart below shows, CrowdStrike has outperformed the general cyber security industry over the past five years and especially since the technology rally started in early 2023.

6_pg_2
CrowdStrike vs cyber security ETF | Source: Saxo

We are still positive on the cyber security industry long-term as it will enjoy a lot of tailwind from geopolitical risks and increased digitalization. Besides CrowdStrike here are some other cyber security instruments to consider:

  • L&G Cyber Security UCITS ETF
  • Palo Alto Networks
  • Fortinet
  • Zscaler
  • Cloudflare

Magnificent Seven stocks are showing cracks

As we wrote last week, US equities ended February on a strong note taking US equities to valuation levels not seen since the 2021 technology bubble and the dot-com bubble in 2000.

This month has so far been different for US equities and the last two days cracks have emerged in among the Magnificent Seven stocks (see table). The group is down 2.4% in the past trading days compared to the S&P 500 down 1.1%. The worst performers have been Apple and Tesla.

Apple is suffering from weak iPhone sales (estimated China iPhone sales year-to-date is -24%) and big uncertainties about the next big category as the company shut down its EV project after 10 years of investments and the Vision Pro still has to show that it is a game changer. In addition, the EU two days ago fined Apple €1.8bn over abusive app store rules.

No real news has hit Tesla making the decline even more worrisome, but it seems retail investors that have previously pushed Tesla higher are more interested in AI stocks these days. This combined with intense competition and lower prices in EV are putting pressure on Tesla’s profitability.

6_pg_3

If volatility comes to life and investors are taking gains in their technology stocks then investors might consider other trades to be shielded from higher volatility such as:

  • Minimum volatility stocks: iShares Edge MSCI Europe Min Volatility UCITS ETF
  • Dividend growth stocks: Franklin European Quality Dividend UCITS ETF

Should Tesla be dropped from the Magnificent Seven?

As with any definition we can just change it if we want. The idea behind the Magnificent Seven was born because those seven stocks delivered the vast majority of gains in the US equity market. As Tesla has declined a lot in market value this year, 27% to be precise, one could argue that Tesla should not be part of the group any longer and that it should be renamed to the Magnificent Six being Microsoft, Apple, Nvidia, Amazon, Meta, and Alphabet (Google). Tesla’s weight in the S&P 500 is now less than half of the smallest stock in Magnificent Six which is Meta. Unless Tesla gets back on track it will not make sense to keep the stock in this group.

6_pg_4
Tesla share price | Source: Saxo

For a Technical Analysis point of view on the Magnificient Seven from our Technical Analyst.  Video: Some of the magnificent seven are tilting lower. Here are the weakest and strongest


Recent notes on equities

Airbnb battles headwinds as fee hike may boost profits, can Airbus soar past Boeing?

Equities 

Q4 2023 earnings scorecard and Arm bonanza

Equities 

Have US equities gone too far this time?

Equities 

Earnings Watch: Busy week with focus on Caterpillar, Eli Lilly, and Siemens

Equities 

Earnings review: Apple, Amazon, and Meta

Equities 

What are the Fed’s possible considerations on rate cuts?

Equities 

Earnings review: Microsoft, Alphabet, AMD, and Novo Nordisk

Equities 

Earnings Watch: Big earnings week with technology giants in focus

Quarterly Outlook

01 /

  • Macro outlook: Trump 2.0: Can the US have its cake and eat it, too?

    Quarterly Outlook

    Macro outlook: Trump 2.0: Can the US have its cake and eat it, too?

    John J. Hardy

    Global Head of Trader Strategy

  • Equity Outlook: The ride just got rougher

    Quarterly Outlook

    Equity Outlook: The ride just got rougher

    Charu Chanana

    Chief Investment Strategist

  • China Outlook: The choice between retaliation or de-escalation

    Quarterly Outlook

    China Outlook: The choice between retaliation or de-escalation

    Charu Chanana

    Chief Investment Strategist

  • Commodity Outlook: A bumpy road ahead calls for diversification

    Quarterly Outlook

    Commodity Outlook: A bumpy road ahead calls for diversification

    Ole Hansen

    Head of Commodity Strategy

  • FX outlook: Tariffs drive USD strength, until...?

    Quarterly Outlook

    FX outlook: Tariffs drive USD strength, until...?

    John J. Hardy

    Global Head of Trader Strategy

  • Fixed Income Outlook: Bonds Hit Reset. A New Equilibrium Emerges

    Quarterly Outlook

    Fixed Income Outlook: Bonds Hit Reset. A New Equilibrium Emerges

    Althea Spinozzi

    Head of Fixed Income Strategy

  • Equity Outlook: Will lower rates lift all boats in equities?

    Quarterly Outlook

    Equity Outlook: Will lower rates lift all boats in equities?

    Peter Garnry

    Chief Investment Strategist

    After a period of historically high equity index concentration driven by the 'Magnificent Seven' sto...
  • Commodity Outlook: Gold and silver continue to shine bright

    Quarterly Outlook

    Commodity Outlook: Gold and silver continue to shine bright

    Ole Hansen

    Head of Commodity Strategy

  • Macro Outlook: The US rate cut cycle has begun

    Quarterly Outlook

    Macro Outlook: The US rate cut cycle has begun

    Peter Garnry

    Chief Investment Strategist

    The Fed started the US rate cut cycle in Q3 and in this macro outlook we will explore how the rate c...
  • FX Outlook: USD in limbo amid political and policy jitters

    Quarterly Outlook

    FX Outlook: USD in limbo amid political and policy jitters

    Charu Chanana

    Chief Investment Strategist

    As we enter the final quarter of 2024, currency markets are set for heightened turbulence due to US ...

Disclaimer

The Saxo Bank Group entities each provide execution-only service and access to Analysis permitting a person to view and/or use content available on or via the website. This content is not intended to and does not change or expand on the execution-only service. Such access and use are at all times subject to (i) The Terms of Use; (ii) Full Disclaimer; (iii) The Risk Warning; (iv) the Rules of Engagement and (v) Notices applying to Saxo News & Research and/or its content in addition (where relevant) to the terms governing the use of hyperlinks on the website of a member of the Saxo Bank Group by which access to Saxo News & Research is gained. Such content is therefore provided as no more than information. In particular no advice is intended to be provided or to be relied on as provided nor endorsed by any Saxo Bank Group entity; nor is it to be construed as solicitation or an incentive provided to subscribe for or sell or purchase any financial instrument. All trading or investments you make must be pursuant to your own unprompted and informed self-directed decision. As such no Saxo Bank Group entity will have or be liable for any losses that you may sustain as a result of any investment decision made in reliance on information which is available on Saxo News & Research or as a result of the use of the Saxo News & Research. Orders given and trades effected are deemed intended to be given or effected for the account of the customer with the Saxo Bank Group entity operating in the jurisdiction in which the customer resides and/or with whom the customer opened and maintains his/her trading account. Saxo News & Research does not contain (and should not be construed as containing) financial, investment, tax or trading advice or advice of any sort offered, recommended or endorsed by Saxo Bank Group and should not be construed as a record of our trading prices, or as an offer, incentive or solicitation for the subscription, sale or purchase in any financial instrument. To the extent that any content is construed as investment research, you must note and accept that the content was not intended to and has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such, would be considered as a marketing communication under relevant laws.

Please read our disclaimers:
Notification on Non-Independent Investment Research (https://www.home.saxo/legal/niird/notification)
Full disclaimer (https://www.home.saxo/legal/disclaimer/saxo-disclaimer)

Saxo Bank A/S (Headquarters)
Philip Heymans Alle 15
2900
Hellerup
Denmark

Contact Saxo

Select region

International
International

All trading and investing comes with risk, including but not limited to the potential to lose your entire invested amount.

Information on our international website (as selected from the globe drop-down) can be accessed worldwide and relates to Saxo Bank A/S as the parent company of the Saxo Bank Group. Any mention of the Saxo Bank Group refers to the overall organisation, including subsidiaries and branches under Saxo Bank A/S. Client agreements are made with the relevant Saxo entity based on your country of residence and are governed by the applicable laws of that entity's jurisdiction.

Apple and the Apple logo are trademarks of Apple Inc., registered in the US and other countries. App Store is a service mark of Apple Inc. Google Play and the Google Play logo are trademarks of Google LLC.