Quarterly Outlook
Macro outlook: Trump 2.0: Can the US have its cake and eat it, too?
John J. Hardy
Global Head of Macro Strategy
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Technical Update - DAX, CAC40, AEX and UK100
Kim Cramer Larsson
Technical Analyst, Saxo Bank
DAX is both short term and medium term in a down trend. DAX is (at the time of writing) moving in to the consolidation area testing 14K level.
Weekly chart: The break below the key support at 14,816 confirmed the double/triple top like formation formed over the past 8-10 months suggesting price targets around 13,310. 200 weekly SMA is still rising slightly also offering some support.
CAC40 is close to test the key support at around 6,421. The leading French Index is in the process of unfolding the Shoulder-Head-Shoulder pattern formed over the past 4 months with potential to further downside.
Weekly chart
Rising trend line broken support area around 6,421-6,253 is likely to be reached in very near future. If moving below that area 6,000 is next psychological level but there would be down side risk to around 5,610 i.e. 0.618 Fibonacci retracement of the uptrend and roughly where the weekly 200 SMA is offering some support
AEX Amsterdam hovering around the consolidation area 735-700. However, a break below 713 and we are likely to see another test of 700. A daily close below 700 there is no strong support before around 600.
200 Daily Moving Average seems to important support for UK100 (FTSE100) testing it several times past 6 months moving in a rising channel pattern.
A close below 200 SMA AND below rising trendline is likely to be the end of uptrend for UK100/FTSE100 Index. However, the Index is still quite a bit above outperforming most other indices at the moment which have down trends confirmed.
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