Introducing Next Generation Medicine basket

Introducing Next Generation Medicine basket

Equities 10 minutes to read
Picture of Peter Garnry
Peter Garnry

Chief Investment Strategist

Summary:  The biotechnology industry has outperformed the general market since 2004 and is generally perceived as being on the forefront of the future of medical treatments. The industry has evolved over many stages and recent technologies such as cell and gene therapy have matured to a degree where investors can now see the commercialization potential. This future has been turbocharged by the Covid-19 pandemic paving the way for the new mRNA technology to deliver a breakthrough vaccine in record time. Investors are now driving high demand for these new advanced biotechnology companies.


Beginning last year, we discussed many different themes starting with the green transformation which we defined as one of the most important ones in the coming decade. However, the green transformation theme as become extremely expensive, something we look at in the soon to be published Q1 Outlook. Throughout 2020 we also discussed bubble stocks, e-commerce and ‘misery industries’. Starting this year, we introduced our Commodity Sector basket as we believe reflation will be the most important theme over the next 12-18 months.

Explanation of theme and the selected biotechnology companies

Today we are launching our next theme called NextGen Medicine containing companies which are working on the next generation of medical diagnostics and treatment, such as analysis of DNA and RNA, immunology, and within cell and gene therapy. The use cases are spanning widely – ranging from treating rare genetic disorders or skin diseases to fighting cancer and viruses with a new and improved line of defense.

We have selected 30 companies for this theme with a global selection universe of biotechnology companies but filtered on the percentage of institutional ownership. Our hypothesis is that high percentage of institutional ownership is a validation as this category of investors has more access to knowledge about these frontier treatments and can thus more informed decisions. This filter has unfortunately removed many Asian biotechnology companies. We have also filtered on cash and equivalents relative to free cash flow, and if the latter is negative we can calculate what we call a burn rate, which is essentially how many years of funding the company has left under current operations. We have removed biotechnology companies with relatively stressed funding situation. Finally, we have sorted on market capitalization in USD and also tried to balance the list across various treatment technologies and geographies although the US is heavily concentrated in this theme because the country has a deeper financial market for absorbing these types of risks.

NameDomicileMkt cap in USD mnR&D in %12M Rev in USD mnBurn rateInsti %
Illumina IncUS54,9471.23,239NM106.4
Moderna IncUS51,3041.4247NM58.6
Seagen IncUS33,4922.41,864NM90.3
Genmab A/SDK29,1321.51,656NM56.5
Exact Sciences CorpUS24,6320.61,3213.589.8
BioNTech SEDE24,6231.01222.2NA
Grifols SAES17,7511.86,039NM51.1
CRISPR Therapeutics AGCH14,7741.6775.779.1
Argenx SENL13,2172.0546.253.1
Mirati Therapeutics IncUS10,9182.6121.7103.1
Fate Therapeutics IncUS10,3850.9184.5102.6
Natera IncUS10,2580.83623.2115.3
Invitae CorpUS9,2932.42451.686.9
Ultragenyx Pharmaceutical IncUS9,0964.02154.3116.7
Twist Bioscience CorpUS8,8170.5901.9107.3
Denali Therapeutics IncUS8,7582.4242.889.6
Arrowhead Pharmaceuticals IncUS8,2971.6882.974.1
Iovance Biotherapeutics IncUS7,4902.701.4117.2
Pacific Biosciences of California IncUS6,8690.980NM89.4
Galapagos NVBE6,6698.957410.854.7
Beam Therapeutics IncUS6,5521.400.971.5
Swedish Orphan Biovitrum ABSE5,8672.61,649NM115.9
Sage Therapeutics IncUS5,3265.772.2116.4
Abcam PLCGB5,2920.9328NM130.5
Intellia Therapeutics IncUS5,2662.7626.499.5
Editas Medicine IncUS4,7732.8924.392.0
PTC Therapeutics IncUS4,6739.43584.4116.5
Allogene Therapeutics IncUS4,5444.202.4115.2
CareDx IncUS4,3421.0169NM109.2
MorphoSys AGDE3,6933.6339NM76.2

Table explanations: R&D in % is the 12-month R&D expense in % of market cap, Burn rate is the number of years the company can sustain current negative free cash flow (NM means not measurable and is used for those with positive free cash flow), Insti % is the institutional ownership of the floating shares (those that are tradeable, so if all shares are not publicly available then the ratio can be above 100%) in %.

The long-term drivers of this theme are the maturing of promising technologies within cell and gene therapy, monoclonal-antibody therapy, and small-molecule therapy, which will attract the necessary funding to complete all trial stages of the treatment development. Ageing populations in the developed world will drive demand for treatments of many diseases ranging from cancer to brain disorders. These new treatments also have the possibility of having fewer side effects compared to the old pharmaceutical drugs. Gene editing holds the possibility to make antibody therapies to work better and in general many of these companies likely represent the future of medical treatment and thus they will most likely become acquisition targets of major pharmaceutical companies.

Performance, selection bias, and survivorship bias

The biotechnology industry was for many years viewed as a pure lottery ticket. Great ideas but many were too expensive to pursue relative to the risk capital available and many disappointing trial data made it unattractive to investors. In the period 2004-2010 the biotechnology industry lived a boring life (see chart) with little outperformance or investor attention. But starting in 2011 and 2012 a new class of biotechnology companies entered public markets with better results and increasingly more interesting technology. More mature biotechnology companies such as Gilead Sciences saw enormous growth rates in its hepatitis C treatment. This started a positive feedback loop of strong returns in public markets creating more risk appetite in the venture capital market and the industry enjoyed a spectacular bull market in the years 2011-2015. In the following years from 2016-2019, the industry entered a new ice-age period driven by slowing growth by the mature biotechnology companies and many bad FDA reviews in clinical trials. But the Covid-19 pandemic brought renewed attention to biotechnology but more importantly the smaller more advanced and next generation biotechnology companies using mRNA, gene editing technology, and antibody drug conjugates. The companies that we feature in our inspirational list, but there are so many more interesting companies that we could not add, so we encourage investors to research wider in the hunt for good long-term potential winners.

20_PG_1
Source: Bloomberg

Our NextGen Medicine basket has done well up 897% since December 2015 compared to 78% for the MSCI World. Past performance is no guarantee of future performance, and in this basket since we sort on market cap and the segment has experienced a strong bull market, we explicitly select recent winners. This naturally creates a selection and survivorship bias in the basket. Investors should therefore focus less on the long-term returns of the basket and more about the overall theme and what will drive it in the future.

20_PG_2

The NextGen Medicine basket has an interesting outlook, but the high growth expectations come with valuations. The basket has a price-to-sales ratio of 22.4 and non-measurable price-to-earnings ratio as most of the companies are not profitable. The price-to-book ratio is 9 making it one of the most expensive segments in the entire equity market. The future does not come cheap these days.

Biotechnology is a very high risk

The risks associated with the theme are the high valuations which is dominating the biotechnology industry in the beginning of 2021. High valuations correlate with high expectations which can be difficult to meet and on average high valuations have historically meant lower future returns. Furthermore, companies in the research phase have high event risk around trials for approval of their products, which leads to potentially large single day drops in individual biotechnology positions. Other biotechnology companies are also trying to solve the same diseases and the ones that gets an approval for a treatment first often gain the momentum and most of the market value. A short-term risk for some of these biotechnology companies is manufacturing delays due to Covid-19. Historically, the biotechnology industry has gone through long periods of low or flat returns, so investors getting exposure to biotechnology stocks should have a long-term horizon.

Quarterly Outlook

01 /

  • Macro outlook: Trump 2.0: Can the US have its cake and eat it, too?

    Quarterly Outlook

    Macro outlook: Trump 2.0: Can the US have its cake and eat it, too?

    John J. Hardy

    Global Head of Macro Strategy

  • Equity Outlook: The ride just got rougher

    Quarterly Outlook

    Equity Outlook: The ride just got rougher

    Charu Chanana

    Chief Investment Strategist

  • China Outlook: The choice between retaliation or de-escalation

    Quarterly Outlook

    China Outlook: The choice between retaliation or de-escalation

    Charu Chanana

    Chief Investment Strategist

  • Commodity Outlook: A bumpy road ahead calls for diversification

    Quarterly Outlook

    Commodity Outlook: A bumpy road ahead calls for diversification

    Ole Hansen

    Head of Commodity Strategy

  • FX outlook: Tariffs drive USD strength, until...?

    Quarterly Outlook

    FX outlook: Tariffs drive USD strength, until...?

    John J. Hardy

    Global Head of Macro Strategy

  • Fixed Income Outlook: Bonds Hit Reset. A New Equilibrium Emerges

    Quarterly Outlook

    Fixed Income Outlook: Bonds Hit Reset. A New Equilibrium Emerges

    Althea Spinozzi

    Head of Fixed Income Strategy

  • Equity Outlook: Will lower rates lift all boats in equities?

    Quarterly Outlook

    Equity Outlook: Will lower rates lift all boats in equities?

    Peter Garnry

    Chief Investment Strategist

    After a period of historically high equity index concentration driven by the 'Magnificent Seven' sto...
  • Commodity Outlook: Gold and silver continue to shine bright

    Quarterly Outlook

    Commodity Outlook: Gold and silver continue to shine bright

    Ole Hansen

    Head of Commodity Strategy

  • Macro Outlook: The US rate cut cycle has begun

    Quarterly Outlook

    Macro Outlook: The US rate cut cycle has begun

    Peter Garnry

    Chief Investment Strategist

    The Fed started the US rate cut cycle in Q3 and in this macro outlook we will explore how the rate c...
  • FX Outlook: USD in limbo amid political and policy jitters

    Quarterly Outlook

    FX Outlook: USD in limbo amid political and policy jitters

    Charu Chanana

    Chief Investment Strategist

    As we enter the final quarter of 2024, currency markets are set for heightened turbulence due to US ...

Content disclaimer

None of the information provided on this website constitutes an offer, solicitation, or endorsement to buy or sell any financial instrument, nor is it financial, investment, or trading advice. Saxo Bank A/S and its entities within the Saxo Bank Group provide execution-only services, with all trades and investments based on self-directed decisions. Analysis, research, and educational content is for informational purposes only and should not be considered advice nor a recommendation.

Saxo’s content may reflect the personal views of the author, which are subject to change without notice. Mentions of specific financial products are for illustrative purposes only and may serve to clarify financial literacy topics. Content classified as investment research is marketing material and does not meet legal requirements for independent research.

Before making any investment decisions, you should assess your own financial situation, needs, and objectives, and consider seeking independent professional advice. Saxo does not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of any information provided and assumes no liability for any errors, omissions, losses, or damages resulting from the use of this information.

Please refer to our full disclaimer and notification on non-independent investment research for more details.
- Notification on Non-Independent Investment Research (https://www.home.saxo/legal/niird/notification)
- Full disclaimer (https://www.home.saxo/legal/disclaimer/saxo-disclaimer)

Saxo Bank A/S (Headquarters)
Philip Heymans Alle 15
2900
Hellerup
Denmark

Contact Saxo

Select region

International
International

All trading and investing comes with risk, including but not limited to the potential to lose your entire invested amount.

Information on our international website (as selected from the globe drop-down) can be accessed worldwide and relates to Saxo Bank A/S as the parent company of the Saxo Bank Group. Any mention of the Saxo Bank Group refers to the overall organisation, including subsidiaries and branches under Saxo Bank A/S. Client agreements are made with the relevant Saxo entity based on your country of residence and are governed by the applicable laws of that entity's jurisdiction.

Apple and the Apple logo are trademarks of Apple Inc., registered in the US and other countries. App Store is a service mark of Apple Inc. Google Play and the Google Play logo are trademarks of Google LLC.