Quarterly Outlook
Fixed Income Outlook: Bonds Hit Reset. A New Equilibrium Emerges
Althea Spinozzi
Head of Fixed Income Strategy
You can access both of our platforms from a single Saxo account.
NY Open: Wall Street wobbles on trade
Michael O’Neill
FX Trader, Loonieviews.net
Wall Street is wobbling on the first trading day of September although the three main indices are well above their August lows. Nike shares (NKE: NYSE) dipped because some investors fear negative fall-out after Nike injected itself into the NFL anthem controversy. Facebook (FE: NASDAQ) shed 3.4% as of 13:45 GMT an analyst downgraded the company to neutral from buy, blaming a deceleration in growth and regulatory scrutiny for the decision.
WTI oil prices surged to $71.377barrel overnight due to news that Gulf of Mexico rigs were evacuated because of soon-to-be Hurricane George. However, a report that Saudi Arabia increased oil production in August has driven prices to $70.53/b in New York.
A better-than-expected US ISM Manufacturing PMI data for August (Actual 61.3 versus forecast 57.7) underpinned an already firming US dollar. GBPUSD is virtually unchanged from its opening level. It was the biggest losing G-10 currency between the New York close on Friday and this morning’s open, so perhaps GBPUSD sellers just needed a break.
Bank of England governor Mark Carney’s testimony before the House of Commons saw him try to walk back his comments from last month where he said that the UK’s biggest risk was from a “no-deal” Brexit. He said he believed that it was unlikely to happen.
USDCAD soared, and it is trading at the overnight and session peak of 1.32065 as of 1400 GMT after the Nafta talks deadline passed without a deal, on Friday.
President Trump tweeted on Saturday: “There is no political necessity to keep Canada in the new NAFTA deal. If we don’t make a fair deal for the U.S. after decades of abuse, Canada will be out. Congress should not interfere w/ these negotiations, or I will simply terminate NAFTA entirely & we will be far better off...”
He continued with “....Remember, NAFTA was one of the WORST Trade Deals ever made. The U.S. lost thousands of businesses and millions of jobs. We were far better off before NAFTA - should never have been signed. Even the Vat Tax was not accounted for. We make new deal or go back to pre-NAFTA!”
The Bank of Canada policy meeting is tomorrow. Last week’s mildly softer-than-expected GDP report and the lack of a US/Canada trade deal will ensure that rates don’t rise tomorrow.
WTI oil prices surged to $71.377barrel overnight due to news that Gulf of Mexico rigs were evacuated because of soon-to-be Hurricane George. However, a report that Saudi Arabia increased oil production in August has driven prices to $70.53/b in New York.
A better-than-expected US ISM Manufacturing PMI data for August (Actual 61.3 versus forecast 57.7) underpinned an already firming US dollar. GBPUSD is virtually unchanged from its opening level. It was the biggest losing G-10 currency between the New York close on Friday and this morning’s open, so perhaps GBPUSD sellers just needed a break.
Bank of England governor Mark Carney’s testimony before the House of Commons saw him try to walk back his comments from last month where he said that the UK’s biggest risk was from a “no-deal” Brexit. He said he believed that it was unlikely to happen.
USDCAD soared, and it is trading at the overnight and session peak of 1.32065 as of 1400 GMT after the Nafta talks deadline passed without a deal, on Friday.
President Trump tweeted on Saturday: “There is no political necessity to keep Canada in the new NAFTA deal. If we don’t make a fair deal for the U.S. after decades of abuse, Canada will be out. Congress should not interfere w/ these negotiations, or I will simply terminate NAFTA entirely & we will be far better off...”
He continued with “....Remember, NAFTA was one of the WORST Trade Deals ever made. The U.S. lost thousands of businesses and millions of jobs. We were far better off before NAFTA - should never have been signed. Even the Vat Tax was not accounted for. We make new deal or go back to pre-NAFTA!”
The Bank of Canada policy meeting is tomorrow. Last week’s mildly softer-than-expected GDP report and the lack of a US/Canada trade deal will ensure that rates don’t rise tomorrow.
Latest Market Insights
Quarterly Outlook
-
-
Quarterly Outlook
Equity Outlook: Will lower rates lift all boats in equities?
Peter Garnry
Chief Investment Strategist
After a period of historically high equity index concentration driven by the 'Magnificent Seven' sto... -
Quarterly Outlook
FX Outlook: USD in limbo amid political and policy jitters
Charu Chanana
Chief Investment Strategist
As we enter the final quarter of 2024, currency markets are set for heightened turbulence due to US ... -
Quarterly Outlook
Macro Outlook: The US rate cut cycle has begun
Peter Garnry
Chief Investment Strategist
The Fed started the US rate cut cycle in Q3 and in this macro outlook we will explore how the rate c... -
Quarterly Outlook
Commodity Outlook: Gold and silver continue to shine bright
Ole Hansen
Head of Commodity Strategy
-
Quarterly Outlook
FX: Risk-on currencies to surge against havens
Charu Chanana
Chief Investment Strategist
Explore the outlook for USD, AUD, NZD, and EM carry trades as risk-on currencies are set to outperfo... -
Quarterly Outlook
Equities: Are we blowing bubbles again
Peter Garnry
Chief Investment Strategist
Explore key trends and opportunities in European equities and electrification theme as market dynami... -
Quarterly Outlook
Macro: Sandcastle economics
Peter Garnry
Chief Investment Strategist
Explore the "two-lane economy," European equities, energy commodities, and the impact of US fiscal p... -
Quarterly Outlook
Bonds: What to do until inflation stabilises
Althea Spinozzi
Head of Fixed Income Strategy
Discover strategies for managing bonds as US and European yields remain rangebound due to uncertain ... -
Quarterly Outlook
Commodities: Energy and grains in focus as metals pause
Ole Hansen
Head of Commodity Strategy
Energy and grains to shine as metals pause. Discover key trends and market drivers for commodities i...