Quarterly Outlook
Fixed Income Outlook: Bonds Hit Reset. A New Equilibrium Emerges
Althea Spinozzi
Head of Fixed Income Strategy
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Technical Update - Uptrend in AEX 25 and CAC 40 seems to be near exhaustion. BEL20 broke out of range but lacking momentum
Kim Cramer Larsson
Technical Analyst, Saxo Bank
AEX 25 seems to have trouble staying above the 200 SMA. Is the leading Dutch Index facing a trend reversal or a correction. Break out from the range between 737 and 711 will tell the direction. Closing above 737 there could be upside to around 772. However, the resistance at 741 is quite strong so look out for a potential false break higher i.e. if AEX breaks above 741 followed by a quick set back below. That could be a strong indication of an exhaustion.
A close below 712 is likely to lead to a sell off down to support at around 696 possibly to strong support at 672.
The divergence on RSI indicates downwards pressure but wait for confirmation. At the time of writing RSI is below its lower rising trend support a corrective scenario to unfold.
CAC 40 seems to be rejected at the resistance at 6,593 just below the 200 SMA. The likely bearish candle today (if CAC closes at current level or lower) indicates a top and reversal.
Divergence on RSI supports this view. However, a correction/trend reversal has not yet been confirmed. A close below 6,449 will do just that. If that occurs a correction down to the 0.382 Fibo retracement at 6,281 should be expected.
BEL 20 finally broke bullish out of its range last week but seems to run out of steam before really getting upside traction. The Gravestone Doji Friday followed by a possible negative candle today is a top and reversal indication which could send BEL20 back below 3,800.
If that scenario plays out selling pressure is likely to increase sending BEL 20 back below 55 SMA (dark blue).
For BEL 20 to keep upside momentum a close above 3,882 is needed, but then there is resistance at around 3,925.
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