Quarterly Outlook
Macro Outlook: The US rate cut cycle has begun
Peter Garnry
Chief Investment Strategist
Technical Analyst, Saxo Bank
Medium- to longer term ASML is trading in a wide falling channel. Two lower trendlines are drawn: One on the lows and one on the weekly closing prices. The more price points a line touches the stronger the trendline.
The upper falling trendline is shifted parallel from the lower lines.
For ASML to reverse this bearish trend a close abov580.50 is needed. However, first indication of this scenario to play out would be ASML breaking above the upper falling trendline.
But for now, the trend is down. There is divergence on RSI however, indicating a weakening of the trend. However, if ASML closes below 370.75 bear will resume. First indications of this scenario are as described in above for daily time period.
However, if ASML closes above 439.50 this Friday a strong bottom and reversal pattern will emerge on the weekly time period in the form of a Bullish Engulfing candle.
If ASML closes below 390.75 there is no strong support until around 299.70.