Quarterly Outlook
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John J. Hardy
Global Head of Macro Strategy
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Technical Update - DAX and EuroStoxx 50 fast approaching low end of 2020 consolidation area
Kim Cramer Larsson
Technical Analyst, Saxo Bank
Free falling DAX and Euro Stoxx 50 taking out key support now back to 2020 consolidation levels. Could test key supports next couple of weeks
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When DAX closed below support at 12,390 a week ago it confirmed its down trend. DAX is fast approaching the lower levels of the consolidation area from 2020 following the Covid-Scare trough i.e., a support at around 11,580-11,450. Around that level is strong key support.
11,411 is the projection of the Q3-2022 correction close to the 0.618 retracement of the 2020-2021 uptrend at 11,325.
RSI is below its lower rising trend line but indicating possible divergence as it has not broken below the RSI lows from Q1.
DAX has been in free fall for more than two weeks now so a correction should be expected. However, it is likely to only be a minor one.
RSI is below 40 with no divergence AND the value is still above the trough from the market reaction to the Russian attack on Ukraine in March i.e., more downside is likely.
Resistance at 12,440.
To demolish this bearish picture both short end medium term DAX must close above 13,500
Euro Stoxx 50 looks quite similar to DAX. Closed below key support at 3,386. 1.382 projection of the Q3 correction is at 3,182 which is the middle of the consolidation area. If that level is taken out Euro Stoxx 500 could drop to 3K.
Some support at the 0.618 retracement at 3,110.
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