Quarterly Outlook
Macro outlook: Trump 2.0: Can the US have its cake and eat it, too?
John J. Hardy
Global Head of Macro Strategy
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Technical Update - DAX, GER40 & Euro Stoxx 50 rebounding but for how long?
Kim Cramer Larsson
Technical Analyst, Saxo Bank
DAX gapping higher this morning. Room up to 0.382 retracement and the sell-off gap earlier this month at around 13,564-13,600.
If the gap created today is closed with a daily close below 13,118 bear trend is likely to resume towards March trough around 12,500.
The GER40cfd/DAX future seems to struggle to get upside traction sliding back after strong early trading. However, the Bullish Engulfing candle Friday and RSI divergence indicates we could see further upside possibly to the 0.382 retracement at 13,550. Big test will be 13,675. If breaking above that level, we could see DAX test 14,000.
Trend is down however, and if RSI breaks below its rising trend line bear trend is likely to resume
Euro Stoxx 50 started rebounding before it tested the March trough. Now currently testing the 0.382 retracement and short-term key resistance at 3,581 of the early June sell off. RSI divergence indicates we could see further upside possibly to the 0.618 retracement at around 3,687. However, it could very well be a struggle. The Underlying trend is down indicated by falling 21 and 55 SMAs.
IF RSI breaks below is short term rising trend line it is strong indication of lower levels on the Index.
If Euro Stoxx drops back below 3,484 we are likely to see another attempt at the March trough.
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