Quarterly Outlook
Macro Outlook: The US rate cut cycle has begun
Peter Garnry
Chief Investment Strategist
Technical Analyst, Saxo Bank
Summary:
Most European equities are not sharing the joy hitting US markets last night. It is mostly Alternative Energy stocks partying. Leading Indices in Europe are in negative this morning and outlook is bleak.
DAX was rejected at key resistance at 13,378 and has since retraced. If RSI breaks below its rising trendline it is a strong indication that bear trend will resume. First indication of that scenario to unfold is if DAX breaks below 13,042. However, a close below 12,827 the bear trend will be confirmed.
GER40 is hovering around the 0.618 retracement level at around 13,182. Key resistance at 13,383 seems too strong for GER40 to close above. Down trend could resume if GER40 breaks below 12,858.
Euro Stoxx 50 opened higher but failed to maintain momentum slipping slowly back.
RSI hasn’t closed above 60 i.e. still showing negative sentiment. If the Index slips back below 3,548 selling pressure is likely to resume.