Quarterly Outlook
Macro outlook: Trump 2.0: Can the US have its cake and eat it, too?
John J. Hardy
Global Head of Macro Strategy
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Technical Update - S&P 500, Nasdaq 100 and Dow Jones Index
Kim Cramer Larsson
Technical Analyst, Saxo Bank
US Equity markets gapped higher at the open, but can they keep up?
S&P 500 key resistance is at 3,812.
Nasdaq 100 key resistance 11,682.
Can Dow Jones extend uptrend?
S&P 500 jumped on the opening currently testing the 0.618 retracement at 3,879. However, key resistance is at 3,912. A close above could fuel a rally to around 4,100.
If S&P 500 slides back below 55 SMA and below 3,800 thereby closing the gap created at the open, selling pressure is likely to accelerate
RSI is still showing negative sentiment and must close above 60 to switch to positive. The divergence on RSI remains until RSI closes above 60. However, if RSI closes below its rising trendline it indicates bear trend to resume.
US500 cfd chart below S&P 500 chart
Nasdaq 100 has bounced from 0.786 retracement and the upper falling trendline, gapping higher at the open. Trend is still down however and will remain bearish until Nasdaq 100 closes above 11,682.
If the Index closes above 11,682 it will have confirmed Double bottom like pattern. With a potential target of 1.618 to 2.00 projection of the pattern i.e., 12,300 – 12,731.
If Nasdaq 100 fails to close above 11,682 and instead slides back closing the gap from the open and RSI closes below its rising trendline Nasdaq 100 is likely to test October lows.
USNAS100 cfd chart below Nasdaq 100 chart for levels
Dow Jones Ind. Index is testing resistance at around 33,292 hovering around the medium term (black) falling trendline. A close above could lead to Dow extending its short-term uptrend to around 34,281.
RSI is showing divergence indicating a weakening and possible exhaustion of the trend. If Dow closes the gap from the open and closes below its steep short-term rising trendline Dow Jones is likely to slide back to around 31,700-31,000.
RSI is showing divergence indicating a weakening and possible exhaustion of the trend. If Dow closes the gap from the open and closes below its steep short-term rising trendline Dow Jones is likely to slide back to around 31,700-31,000.
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