Quarterly Outlook
Fixed Income Outlook: Bonds Hit Reset. A New Equilibrium Emerges
Althea Spinozzi
Head of Fixed Income Strategy
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Technical Update - S&P 500, Nasdaq 100 and Russell 2000
Kim Cramer Larsson
Technical Analyst, Saxo Bank
US Indices broke bearish out of sideways ranges with a bang.
Across the board US Equities are set for lower levels. S&P 500 and Nasdaq could be 10% lower going in to July
S&P500 has resumed bear trend after breaking out of range closing last week at the 0.764 Fibo retracement level. However, the Index Future points to a test of May lows at around 3,810.
S&P 500 is set for lower levels going into the summer (winter if you are on the Southern Hemisphere). A close below 3,810 and there is no support before around 3,510 which is the top of the consolidation area. 200 weekly SMA will offer some support. 3,505 is 0.5 Fibonacci Retracement of the 2020-2022 rally.
The lower level of the Consolidation area is at the same level as the 0.618 retracement of the rally.
RSI is back below 40 and still in a falling trend.
To reverse this strong bearish picture a close above 4,178 is needed
Nasdaq 100 closed Friday bang on the 0.764 Fibo retracement. However, the Index Future is pointing to an open around the May lows around 11,500. A close below will further confirm the bear trend. Minor rebound is not unlikely, however.
If Nasdaq 100 closes below May lows at around 11,492 the Technical laden Index is set for further downside to around strong support level around 10,960-10,677 which is close to the 0.618 retracement and the 200 weekly SMA.
To reverse this strong bearish picture a close above 13K is needed.
Russell 2000 Small Cap Index broke bearish out of Rising wedge like pattern on Daily. May lows around 1,700 are likely to be tested. A daily close below 1,700 is likely to further fuel a sell-off that can take the Small cap index down to round 1,500
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