Quarterly Outlook
Fixed Income Outlook: Bonds Hit Reset. A New Equilibrium Emerges
Althea Spinozzi
Head of Fixed Income Strategy
Technical Analyst, Saxo Bank
S&P 500 closed above resistance at 3,974 and above 0.618 retracement but couldn’t close the gap. RSI was also rejected at 60 threshold indicating bear trend could resume. A close of the gap and a close above 4,018, supported by RSI closing above 60, will confirm the uptrend. An uptrend that could take S&P 500 to resistance at 4,073 and key resistance at 4,177.
If S&P 500 fails to close above 4,018 and selling pressure resumes keep an eye on RSI. If it closes below its rising trendline it is a strong indication the relief rally and uptrend is to end and be reversed.
Nasdaq 100 closed above resistance at 12,458 last week with RSI above 60 supporting the short- term uptrend picture. An uptrend likely to continue to test resistance at 12,897. If Nasdaq 100 closes below 12,175 it could be an indication of uptrend is reversing.