Quarterly Outlook
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John J. Hardy
Global Head of Macro Strategy
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Technical Update - AEX25, BEL20 & CAC40
Kim Cramer Larsson
Technical Analyst, Saxo Bank
Summary: Correction time in European Equities. But most likely not a correction larger than 3-4% before uptrend is likely to continue
Today's Saxo Market Call podcast.
Today's Market Quick Take from the Saxo Strategy Team
AEX25 formed a Shooting Star candle followed by a bearish candle last week which is an indication of a top and reversal. A correction should be expected. A correction that could take the Index down to around 715. However, the steep rising 55 SMA will provide support and is likely to limit the downside. If AEX closes the gap buyers will try to lift AEX above last week’s peak. If they succeed the uptrend is set to continue with a move to resistance at around 772.
There is no divergence on RSI indicating higher levels are likely after a correction.
BEL20 was hit last week by massive selling forming a Bearish Engulfing candle followed by a gap at text day’s open.
There is no divergence on RSI indicating higher levels are likely after a correction that is under development. A correction that could take BEL 20 down to around 3,800 possibly dipping down to around 3,767 before buyers are likely to regain control.
If BEL 20 closes the gap and takes our last week’s peak there is resistance at around 4,012-4,031.
CAC40 reached 1.618 projection and 7,100 before selling set in. CAC seems set for a correction down to support at around 6,892 and around the 0.382 retracement at 6,837.
No divergn3ce on RSI which is showing bullish sentiment supporting higher levels for CAC after a correction. If CAC closes the gap a move to 7,150 resistance and higher is likely.
Medium-term CAC 40 has no strong resistance until previous high at 7,384.
RSI divergence explained: When instrument price is making a new high/low but RSI values are not making new high/low at the same time. That is a sign of imbalance in the market and an weakening of the uptrend/downtrend. Divergence or imbalance in the market can go on for quite some time but not forever. It is an indication of an exhaustion of the trend
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