Quarterly Outlook
Fixed Income Outlook: Bonds Hit Reset. A New Equilibrium Emerges
Althea Spinozzi
Head of Fixed Income Strategy
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Technical Update - AEX25, BEL20, CAC40 and SMI20 likely to resume down trend
Kim Cramer Larsson
Technical Analyst, Saxo Bank
Summary: AEX25 / NETH25 cfd, BEL20 / BELG20 cfd, CAC40 / FRA40 cfd and SMI20 / SWISS20 cfd rebound running out of steam and seem likely to resume downtrend
AEX25/NETH25 cfd bounce seems to be running out of steam well below strong resistance area around 744-750 and seems to be forming a falling channel pattern.
RSI still below 60 threshold i.e., back still in negative sentiment.
Downtrend is intact and another push lower is in the cards. For AEX to turn bullish a close above 750 is needed. A close above upper falling trendline could be first indicating of the 750 resistance is likely to be tested BEL20/BELG20 cfd strong bounce seems to have come to a halt at the 0.786 retracement at around 3,511. Currently trading around the 0.618 retracement BEL20 could slide lower to test the GAP area support 3,398-3,378. Close below is very likely to sending the Index to new lows below 3,271
A break above 3,514 will extend the bounce to resistance at around 3,575
A break above 3,514 will extend the bounce to resistance at around 3,575
CAC40/FRA40 cfd lower after being rejected at 7,100 and the 0.786 retracement. A close below 6,959 is likely to resulting in CAC40 resuming downtrend where support at around 6,800 will be tested once again.
A break above 7,100 could extend the rebound to resistance at around 7,200 SMI20/SWISS20 is testing gap resistance area. A close of the gap i.e., a close above 10,675 is needed for SMI to turn bullish. If that scenario plays out SMI will have potential to 10,900
However, currently it seems like SMI20 is set to be rejected at the gap area thus likely to resume downtrend towards 10K
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