Quarterly Outlook
Macro outlook: Trump 2.0: Can the US have its cake and eat it, too?
John J. Hardy
Global Head of Macro Strategy
You can access both of our platforms from a single Saxo account.
Technical Update - AEX25 higher. BEL20 and CAC40 resuming uptrend? SMI20 still looking bearish
Kim Cramer Larsson
Technical Analyst, Saxo Bank
AEX25/NETH25 cfd has propelled higher to all-time highs. To get an idea of how much higher AEX could climb we can add a few Fibonacci annotations.
The Index has now surpassed the 2.0 Fibonacci projection of the December correction at 829.50 pushing towards the 2.618 projection at 849.
RSI is cancelling its divergence if closing above the dashed horizontal line and despite being at an extreme value around 84 is indicating AEX could climb a bit higher.
To reverse the trend a close below 816 is needed
BEL20/SWISS20 cfd kept itself above key support at around 3,609 and has now bounced to test the upper falling trendline and seems likely to resuming uptrend.
A break above the falling trend combined with the RSI closing above 60 threshold will pave the road to resistance at around 3,742.
A close below 3,609 will demolish this likely bullish scenario and send BBEL20down to 3,550
CAC40/FRA40 cfd is at the time of writing breaking above the resistance at around 7,654. If closing above there is potential to cancel the Bearish Engulfing top and reversal candle. If that scenario plays out CAC40 could move to 7,800 level.
RSI is still in positive sentiment with no divergence supporting higher Index levels.
A close below 7,553 will demolish and reverse this picture
SMI20 Doji Evening Star top and reversal pattern (circled) still in play with short-term down side potential to support at around 11,057.
However, a close above 11,334 combined with an RSI close above 60 threshold and its upper falling trendline will be a strong indication the top and reversal pattern could be cancelled
However, a close above 11,334 combined with an RSI close above 60 threshold and its upper falling trendline will be a strong indication the top and reversal pattern could be cancelled
SWISS 20 cfd levels: support at around 11,067.
Trend reversal above 11,332
Trend reversal above 11,332
Latest Market Insights
Quarterly Outlook
-
-
Quarterly Outlook
Equity Outlook: The ride just got rougher
Charu Chanana
Chief Investment Strategist
-
Quarterly Outlook
China Outlook: The choice between retaliation or de-escalation
Charu Chanana
Chief Investment Strategist
-
Quarterly Outlook
Commodity Outlook: A bumpy road ahead calls for diversification
Ole Hansen
Head of Commodity Strategy
-
Quarterly Outlook
FX outlook: Tariffs drive USD strength, until...?
John J. Hardy
Global Head of Macro Strategy
-
Quarterly Outlook
Fixed Income Outlook: Bonds Hit Reset. A New Equilibrium Emerges
Althea Spinozzi
Head of Fixed Income Strategy
-
Quarterly Outlook
Equity Outlook: Will lower rates lift all boats in equities?
Peter Garnry
Chief Investment Strategist
After a period of historically high equity index concentration driven by the 'Magnificent Seven' sto... -
Quarterly Outlook
Commodity Outlook: Gold and silver continue to shine bright
Ole Hansen
Head of Commodity Strategy
-
Quarterly Outlook
Macro Outlook: The US rate cut cycle has begun
Peter Garnry
Chief Investment Strategist
The Fed started the US rate cut cycle in Q3 and in this macro outlook we will explore how the rate c... -
Quarterly Outlook
FX Outlook: USD in limbo amid political and policy jitters
Charu Chanana
Chief Investment Strategist
As we enter the final quarter of 2024, currency markets are set for heightened turbulence due to US ...