Quarterly Outlook
Macro outlook: Trump 2.0: Can the US have its cake and eat it, too?
John J. Hardy
Chief Macro Strategist
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Technical Update - AEX25, BEL20, CAC40 & SMI20
Kim Cramer Larsson
Technical Analyst, Saxo Bank
Summary:
AEX25/NETH25 bullish bull struggling with strong resistance
CAC40/FRA40 above 7,200 but seems to be stalling
BEL20/BELG20 forming bottom and reversal pattern. Will it come to fruition?
SMI20/SWISS20 lagging other markets struggling to confirm positive sentiment and momentum
AEX25/NETH25 cfd rejected at the resistance at around 763. Strong support at around 750.
A close above 763 is likely to fuel bullish move to towards 780. Minor resistance at around 764.
Positive RSI with no divergence is supporting the bullish scenario.
A close below 750 is likely to demolish the bullish picture.
BEL20/BELG20 cfd seems to have formed an Inverted Shoulder-Head-Shoulder like pattern.
IF BEL20 can close above strong resistance at around 3,575 the RSI will close above 60 i.e., indicate higher Index levels.
The full potential of the SHS pattern is indicated by the vertical arrows i.e., to around 3,752 but a bullish move is likely to be cut short around the0.618 and 0.786 Fibonacci levels at 3,652-3,696.
It should also be noted that there is strong resistance at around 3,632. The declining 200 Daily Moving Average will also add to the overhead resistance.
A close below 3,506 will hurt the performance of the SHS pattern and a close below right shoulder i.e, below 3,413 will demolish it CAC40/FRA40 cfd has closed above 7,203 resistance but seems to be struggling to get away from the 200 DMA. A minor correction could be seen. However, RSI is showing positive sentiment indicated likely higher CAC40 levels. No strong resistance until around 7,400.
A close below 7,168 is likely to demolish the bullish picture SMI20/SWISS20 cfd is lagging other European Indices despite closing above the Gap area.
RSI is still showing negative sentiment and must close abgove 60 threshold to shift to positive
SMI20/SWISS20 could be forming a rising wedge like pattern. If breaking below the lower rising trendline the Index could resume bearish trend. Support at around 10,598
If RSI is closing above 60 threshold the bullish trend will be confirmed with potential up to 11,070
SWISS20 is currently being rejected at the 0.618 retracement at 10,760 and needs to close above for upside momentum.
A close below 10,516 will confirm SMI/SWISS20 has resumed bearish trend. A close below the lower rising trendline would be first warning of this scenario to play out
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