Quarterly Outlook
Macro outlook: Trump 2.0: Can the US have its cake and eat it, too?
John J. Hardy
Global Head of Macro Strategy
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Technical Update - Amazon could resume medium-term downtrend. Can Intel build an uptrend?
Kim Cramer Larsson
Technical Analyst, Saxo Bank
Summary: Amazon sliding lower and could resume medium-term downtrend.
Intel gapping higher but is it enough to build uptrend?
Amazon is back below 200 daily Moving Average and could be testing its short-term lower rising trendline. The uptrend is still intact but that could be demolished if Amazon closes below lower rising trendline. If that scenario plays out a sell-off down to 97.71 could be seen.
A close below 97.71 Amazon would be in a confirmed downtrend with a likely sell-off down to around 88-80 as a result.
Medium-term Amazon seems to be rejected at the steep falling 55 weekly Moving Average and falling trendline.
RSI is still showing negative sentiment indicating Amazon could resume its bearish trend.
A weekly close below 97.71 will confirm that scenario.
For Amazon to build a medium-term uptrend it needs to close above 114 supported by an RSI close above 60 threshold.
Intel has gapped higher but at the time of writing RSI is still below 60 threshold. A close above is needed to confirm uptrend. If RSI is rejected at 60 Bears could try to close the price gap.
That scenario could play out if Intel closes below 31.15.
Medium-term On weekly chart Intel has formed what looks like a triple bottom pattern. It has close above key resistance at around 31.34 but has been rejected several times from its steep falling 55 weekly Moving Average.
Weekly RSI is still showing negative sentiment indicating. Intel needs to close above 33.84 for to confirm a medium-term bullish trend. An uptrend that would have potential to around 40 level.
But if Intel slides back to close below 28.50 the Triple Bottom pattern has been demolished and a new low below 24.59 could be seen.
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