Quarterly Outlook
Macro Outlook: The US rate cut cycle has begun
Peter Garnry
Chief Investment Strategist
Technical Analyst, Saxo Bank
Summary: A follow up on the Technical Update on Apple, Microsoft, Meta, Amazon, Alphabet, Nvidia and Tesla from the 10th August where top and reversal patterns were discussed. See link below before Apple text
Patterns that strongly indicated the uptrends in most of the mentioned stocks were over. Only Amazon and Alphabet are still holding on. But their uptrends are very weak and could soon reverse too. Tesla sell-off seems brutal taking out several supports
Keep an eye on the support levels.
Apple AAPL touched the support at 176.39 a few days ago but is likely to have another go shortly.
Trend is down and if Apple is closing below the support next support is at 170.76 but the down trend could take Apple down to stronger support at around 160.25
A bounce from the support at 176.39 could be seen but is likely to be short-lived and limited.
Strong resistance at 185.52
Microsoft MSFT has broken below its support at around 323.24 and seems set for a move down to next support at around 312.29.
The 100 Moving Average will offer some support, however.
RSI sentiment is negative indicating lower levels are likely and if MSFT is closing below 312 it could be hit with heavy selling down to around 295.
A close above 328.50 can give a bit of relief to investors but it is likely to be short-lived up till around 335. The declining 55 MA will limit its upside potential.
Meta Platforms is testing key support at around 301. It has closed the gap which is a negative sign. If Meta is closing below next key support at around 288.30 it could fuel a sell-off down to 272-260 support area
For Meta to resume uptrend a close 318.45 is needed.Amazon AMZN is still holding up i.e., uptrend intact but weak.
If AMZN is closing below 135.35 it could be hit by widespread profit-taking sending the share price down to test the lower rising trendline
RSI is still showing positive sentiment but there is massive divergence which is a strong indication of uptrend is very weak, strongly suggesting a correction/trend reversal.
Not closing the gap i.e., not closing below 135.35 is key.
Alphabet C GOOG is hovering around the top of the gap area at 129.66. If closing the gap i.e., closing below 125.70 and below the lower rising trendline a sell-off down to 120-15 will be in the cards.
RSI is still showing positive sentiment but there is massive divergence which is a strong indication of uptrend is very weak, strongly suggesting a correction/trend reversal.
Nvidia NVDA bounced strongly off its key support at around 406.32. RSI closed below the 40 threshold i.e., showing negative sentiment, and the bounce could prove to be short-lived unless it can close above 453.42.
If that scenario plays out a push for all-time highs at around 480.88 could be seen.
If NVDA cannot hold up and is closing below 403.10 it is likely to be hit by massive sell-off down to 373.56 support, which is top of the big gap area from May. The 100 Moving Average will offer some support around that level.
Tesla TSLA closed yesterday below another key support at around 234.80. The stock is almost in a free fall.
RSI showing negative sentiment with no divergence indicating lower levels are likely.
A move down to around 207.63 is in the cards.
the 100 Moving Average will offer some support and TSLA can pause its selling pressure at the lower part of the Cloud.
For TSLA to reverse the down trend a close above 264.78 is needed.
A move back above 251.80 is likely to only pause the selling pressure for a while
The top and reversal pattern on the weekly chart as outlined in previous Tesla update is unfolding.