Quarterly Outlook
Fixed Income Outlook: Bonds Hit Reset. A New Equilibrium Emerges
Althea Spinozzi
Head of Fixed Income Strategy
Technical Analyst, Saxo Bank
ASML Holding broke bullish out of its Descending triangle like pattern formed since the beginning of the year. (See previous Technical Update on ASML)
The share price has taken out the peak of the triangle at 639.50 and seems set to move higher.
RSI is bullish on both daily and weekly chart with no divergence supporting the bullish picture.
However, short-term ASML has formed a Shooting Star top and reversal candle which indicates we could see a correction. Support at 625 could be tested and it is not unlikely the upper falling trendline could be tested too before uptrend is likely to resume.
However, ASML is in an uptrend medium-term that could take the share price to previous highs and a correction could be cut short before buyers are coming back in.
A possible scenario is indicated with arrows on the daily chart
If ASML closes below the upper falling trend line the short-term bullish scenario is in jeopardy. A close below 582.50 the short-term trend has been reversed but for the medium-term bullish picture to be reversed a close below 545.70 is needed