Quarterly Outlook
Macro outlook: Trump 2.0: Can the US have its cake and eat it, too?
John J. Hardy
Global Head of Macro Strategy
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Technical Update - ASX 200, Hang Seng and China A50
Kim Cramer Larsson
Technical Analyst, Saxo Bank
S&P ASX200 is continuing its short-term downtrend/correction and is close to test lower rising trendline. A dip down to the 0.618 retracement and support at around 7,152 should be expected in an exhaustive corrective move. 100 daily Moving Average adding to the support
Daily RSI showing negative sentiment supporting the view of lower levels on ASX200. If ASX200 closes above 7,477 uptrend is to resume.
Medium-term uptrend is still intact. Weekly RSI still positive and with no divergence indicating likely higher ASX 200 levels. Test of all-time highs after the ongoing correction is still in the cards.
Hang Seng Index sell-off has reached 20K but seems likely to drop further . RSI is negative indicating lower levels on the Hang Seng. Support at the 0.382 retracement and the 200 daily Moving Average around 19,06 and support at around 18,960 where 100 daily Moving Average will add to the support. For Hang Seng to resume uptrend a close above 21,07 is needed
FTSE China A50 future has broken below the 200 daily SMA. Downtrend further confirmed and further down side to strong support at around 12,800 seems likely. RSI below 40 confirms the negative sentiment. A close above 13,838 will reverse the down trend.
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