Quarterly Outlook
Macro outlook: Trump 2.0: Can the US have its cake and eat it, too?
John J. Hardy
Global Head of Macro Strategy
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Technical Update - DAX & AEX25 in uptrends. CAC40 struggling. BEL20 in a downtrend
Kim Cramer Larsson
Technical Analyst, Saxo Bank
Summary: DAX/GER40 and AEX25/NETH25 resuming uptrend. Will they make new all-time highs?
CAC40/FRA40 trading around key resistance
BEL20/BELG20 in downtrend but could bounce off lows short-term
DAX closed Friday above 10K and back above the Cloud. DAX seems to be resuming uptrend. However, RSI still showing positive sentiment is currently below 60 threshold and below its falling trendline. A close above will confirm uptrend that could push DAX to new all-time highs.
Key support at 15,625
Medium-term uptrend intact but with RSI divergence conforming the picture of a weakening trend
GER40 cfd:
Bounced just above key support at around 15,688. RSI showing positive sentiment but seems to be struggling to break above 60 threshold.
AEX25 is at the time of writing trading above resistance at 777. A daily close above paves the road to the 800 level.
RSI is back above 60 i.e., confirming the uptrend. A close above 802 is likely to push the Index higher towards all-time highs around 829.
To reverse this bullish picture a close below 748 is needed.
NETH25 cfd. Uptrend likely to test 800. To reverse this bullish picture a close below 750 is needed
BEL20 is in a down trend but with last week’s close above 3,500 BEL20 could bounce to test upper falling trendline. A close above the falling trendline could give the Index energy to resistance at around d3,688.
If BEL20 slides back below 3,500 the down trend is likely to be extended down to 2022 low at around 3,269
BELG20 cfd:
CAC40 is trading above resistance at around 7,404. If a daily close above and RSI closes above 60 threshold all-time high around 7,581 is likely to be tested.
IF CAC40 fails to close above 7,404 the Index will continue its range bound behaviour with downside to around 7,100.
FRA40 cfd. The picture does seem a bit more bullish (than CAC40 Index) with Friday’s RSI close above 60 threshold. Next resistance at around 7,500 and all-time high
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