Quarterly Outlook
Fixed Income Outlook: Bonds Hit Reset. A New Equilibrium Emerges
Althea Spinozzi
Head of Fixed Income Strategy
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Technical Update - DAX, FTSE100, AEX25, BEL20 & CAC40
Kim Cramer Larsson
Technical Analyst, Saxo Bank
Summary:
DAX seems indecisive trading sideways after being rejected at all-time high.
AEX25 keeps getting rejected at 770. Can it break it?
BEL20, CAC40 and FTSE100 in downtrends trying to find supports
GER40 and UK100 cfd levels
DAX got rejected at all-time highs and now seems like it cannot make up its mind about direction. Will it have another go at the all-time highs at around 16,300 level or establish a downtrend? A move above 16,114 is likely to lead to a new attempt at taking out the all-time highs. Positive RSI with no divergence indicates that is a likely outcome.
But if DAX closes below 15,625 a down trend has been established.
Minor support at around 15,482 but downside potential to around 15K
GER40 cfd:
AEX25 seems to be forming an Ascending triangle like pattern with strong overhead resistance at around 770 and the lower rising trendline Break out is needed for direction.
A close above 770 February peak at around 777.58 is likely to be tested, and not unlikely to be taking out.
If AEX closes below lower rising trendline a sell-off down to support at around 731 could be seen.
Positive RSI indicates breakout is likely to be to the upside, but confirmation is needed.
BEL20 has been trading in a steep falling channel pattern. Despite the Index managing to get back above 3,570 the trend is still down. A close above 3,669 is needed to reverse that picture. However, even if the Index manages to close above the resistance level at 3,669 the 200 and the 55 Moving Averages will provide resistance which is likely to limit the upside potential.
If rejected last week’s lows are likely to be tested and if taken out there is downside potential to around 3,378
CAC40 is in a short-term downtrend but has found support at the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement at 7,096.
For CAC40 to reverse the downtrend a close above 7,357 is a minimum but closing the gap would be key for Bears to turn around i.e., a close above 7,379.
RSI is negative sentiment with no divergence suggesting lower levels could be seen. If CAC takes out last week’s low at around 7,083 there is downside potential to around 6,800
FTSE100 is in a downtrend bouncing just above the support at around 7,405. Negative RSI sentiment indicates FTSE 100 could have a go at the support. However, the Index is more likely to be rangebound between 7,400 and 7,632 the next few weeks bouncing from around the 200 Moving Average and the 55 Moving Average.
A close above 7,632 there is strong overhead resistance with the 55 and the 100 Moving Averages coming down. Adding to that the strong resistance at around 7,800.
If FTSE100 takes out both the lows from last week and the strong support at around 7,405 March trough at around 7,206 is in sight.
UK100 cfd:
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