Quarterly Outlook
Fixed Income Outlook: Bonds Hit Reset. A New Equilibrium Emerges
Althea Spinozzi
Head of Fixed Income Strategy
Technical Analyst, Saxo Bank
Summary: EuroStoxx50/EU50 uptrend stretched but no top and reversal pattern in place.
DAX/GER40 once again rejected at 17K a correction could unfold. A close above 17K is needed for uptrend to be extended
EuroStoxx50/EU50 cfd have reached 1.382 of the December correction at around 4,674 and seems to be stalling somewhat. However, there is no top and reversal pattern in place and despite RSI showing divergence there could be further upside potential.
An Index break above 4,675 is likely to push EuroStoxx50 towards 4,755-4,800
A close below 4,568 is likely to demolish the continued bullish scenario
DAX/GER40 cfd is once again being rejected at the 17K peak level. A close above is needed to extend the bullish move since mid-January. If that scenario is playing out DAX could push higher to around 17,500
RSI is still showing positive sentiment but also showing divergence indicating a correction is in the cards. If DAX is failing to close above 17K the correction is likely to be unfolding potentially down to the 0.618 retracement at 16,595