background image

Technical Update - DAX & AEX25 in down trends. CAC40 range bound. BEL20 correction

Equities 4 minutes to read
KCL
Kim Cramer Larsson

Technical Analyst, Saxo Bank

Summary:  DAX/GER40 and AEX25/NETH25 are in confirmed downtrends. CAC40/FRA40 range bound. BEL20/BELG20 in correction phase that could turn to bearish trend


DAX seems to be finding some support at the 0.786 retracement. The trend is down supported by negative RSI sentiment.
Strong support at around 15,482.

However, with the almost flat 55 Moving Average and the rising 100 and 200 Moving Averages DAX could find itself range bound between 16K and 15,485 for quite some time with sentiment to the downside.

To demolish the bearish picture and resume to uptrend a close above 16,060 is needed.

dax d 1608
Source all charts and data: Saxo Group

GER40 cfd bouncing from 0.786 retracement at 15,682- Trend is down supported by negative RSI sentiment indicating GER40 could test support at around 15,500

ger40 d 1608

AEX 25/NETH25 cfd are in a downtrend following the sell/off yesterday where the index closed below 763.

This morning AEX is opening below the Cloud and the RSI is currently below 40 threshold. If that picture still stands at the end of the day (or tomorrow for that matter) the down trend is further confirmed.

Strong support at around 748 could be tested in a few days.
A close below 748 could push AEX down to 740-735 area.
To reverse the down trend a close above 781 is needed.

aex25 d 1608
neth25 d 1608
BEL20/BELG20 cfd closed below support at around 3,676 only to find support at the 0.50 retracement at 3,654.
The 55 daily Moving Average will offer some support RSI is still holding on above 40 threshold.

The BEL20 index could be sandwiched between the 55 and the 200 Moving Averages  for some time before a clear direction. However, if the RSI is closing below 40 expect further downside.  Quite likely to around 3,550.
A close above 3,747 uptrend will resume.

bel20 d 1608
belg20 d 1608

CAC 40 is once again testing support at 7,251 and the lower part of the Cloud. RSI is still in positive sentiment and the 21, 55 and 100 Moving Average are in tight range and almost flatlined. The Index seems quite range bound.

A close below 7,250 is likely to lead to a sell-off down to strong support at around 7,083. The 200 Moving Average will offer some support.
To resume uptrend a close above 7,465 is needed

cac40 d 1608

FRA40 cfd opened below the Cloud this morning only to jump back in. The FRA40 could be range bound for a few more days and needs to close below 7,217 for downside momentum.
RSI still positive sentiment

fra40 d 1608

Quarterly Outlook

01 /

  • Upending the global order at blinding speed

    Quarterly Outlook

    Upending the global order at blinding speed

    John J. Hardy

    Global Head of Macro Strategy

    We are witnessing a once-in-a-lifetime shredding of the global order. As the new order takes shape, ...
  • Equity outlook: The high cost of global fragmentation for US portfolios

    Quarterly Outlook

    Equity outlook: The high cost of global fragmentation for US portfolios

    Charu Chanana

    Chief Investment Strategist

  • Asset allocation outlook: From Magnificent 7 to Magnificent 2,645—diversification matters, now more than ever

    Quarterly Outlook

    Asset allocation outlook: From Magnificent 7 to Magnificent 2,645—diversification matters, now more than ever

    Jacob Falkencrone

    Global Head of Investment Strategy

  • Commodity Outlook: Commodities rally despite global uncertainty

    Quarterly Outlook

    Commodity Outlook: Commodities rally despite global uncertainty

    Ole Hansen

    Head of Commodity Strategy

  • Macro outlook: Trump 2.0: Can the US have its cake and eat it, too?

    Quarterly Outlook

    Macro outlook: Trump 2.0: Can the US have its cake and eat it, too?

    John J. Hardy

    Global Head of Macro Strategy

  • Equity Outlook: The ride just got rougher

    Quarterly Outlook

    Equity Outlook: The ride just got rougher

    Charu Chanana

    Chief Investment Strategist

  • China Outlook: The choice between retaliation or de-escalation

    Quarterly Outlook

    China Outlook: The choice between retaliation or de-escalation

    Charu Chanana

    Chief Investment Strategist

  • Commodity Outlook: A bumpy road ahead calls for diversification

    Quarterly Outlook

    Commodity Outlook: A bumpy road ahead calls for diversification

    Ole Hansen

    Head of Commodity Strategy

  • FX outlook: Tariffs drive USD strength, until...?

    Quarterly Outlook

    FX outlook: Tariffs drive USD strength, until...?

    John J. Hardy

    Global Head of Macro Strategy

  • Fixed Income Outlook: Bonds Hit Reset. A New Equilibrium Emerges

    Quarterly Outlook

    Fixed Income Outlook: Bonds Hit Reset. A New Equilibrium Emerges

    Althea Spinozzi

    Head of Fixed Income Strategy

Content disclaimer

None of the information provided on this website constitutes an offer, solicitation, or endorsement to buy or sell any financial instrument, nor is it financial, investment, or trading advice. Saxo Bank A/S and its entities within the Saxo Bank Group provide execution-only services, with all trades and investments based on self-directed decisions. Analysis, research, and educational content is for informational purposes only and should not be considered advice nor a recommendation.

Saxo’s content may reflect the personal views of the author, which are subject to change without notice. Mentions of specific financial products are for illustrative purposes only and may serve to clarify financial literacy topics. Content classified as investment research is marketing material and does not meet legal requirements for independent research.

Before making any investment decisions, you should assess your own financial situation, needs, and objectives, and consider seeking independent professional advice. Saxo does not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of any information provided and assumes no liability for any errors, omissions, losses, or damages resulting from the use of this information.

Please refer to our full disclaimer and notification on non-independent investment research for more details.

Saxo Bank A/S (Headquarters)
Philip Heymans Alle 15
2900
Hellerup
Denmark

Contact Saxo

Select region

International
International

All trading and investing comes with risk, including but not limited to the potential to lose your entire invested amount.

Information on our international website (as selected from the globe drop-down) can be accessed worldwide and relates to Saxo Bank A/S as the parent company of the Saxo Bank Group. Any mention of the Saxo Bank Group refers to the overall organisation, including subsidiaries and branches under Saxo Bank A/S. Client agreements are made with the relevant Saxo entity based on your country of residence and are governed by the applicable laws of that entity's jurisdiction.

Apple and the Apple logo are trademarks of Apple Inc., registered in the US and other countries. App Store is a service mark of Apple Inc. Google Play and the Google Play logo are trademarks of Google LLC.