Technical Update - EURUSD testing 200 DMA, USDJPY finding bids and Dollar Index back to 104.40?

Technical Update - EURUSD testing 200 DMA, USDJPY finding bids and Dollar Index back to 104.40?

Equities 3 minutes to read
KCL
Kim Cramer Larsson

Technical Analyst, Saxo Bank

Summary:  EURUSD sold off heavily after being rejected at 1.10. Will it test 107.65 support?
USDJPY below 147 but finding bids
Dollar Index bouncing but can it bounce to 104.40 resistance


EURUSD seems to be in correction mode after being rejected at 1.10 resistance followed by a bearish break out of the rising wedge like pattern.
Currently finding support, and bouncing, from the 0.382 retracement at 1.0826. A break below 1.0820 could see EURUSD testing strong support at around 1.0762. However, a dip down to the 0.618 retracement at 1.0708 should not be ruled out.

However, the uptrend is intact supported by positive sentiment on the RSI and no divergence, indicating EURUSD is trading higher after a correction

There is some conflict between the medium- and longer term trends illustrated by the 100 Daily Moving Average declining and the 200 DMA rising which can result in a tug of war between Bulls and Bears around the Moving Average levels i.e. current levels and 1.0760
eurusd d 0412
Source all charts and data: Saxo Group
USDJPY seems to be finding some support at the 0.382 retracement at 146.30. Trend is confirmed down however, supported by negative sentiment on RSI. A break below today’s low at 146.20 is likely to see another round of sell-off down top support at around 144.75.
But a dip down to the 0.618 retracement should not be ruled out.
For USDJPY to reverse to uptrend a close above 149.75 is needed
usdjpy d 0412

The Dollar Index is bouncing to test the 200 DMA but downtrend is intact. Bounce could continue to test upper falling trend line possibly spiking to test key strong resistance at around 104.40

RSI is showing negative sentiment with no divergence indicating lower Index levels are likely. A move to the 0.618 retracement at 102.21 with a spike down to test support at around 101.60 could be seen. That could be an exhaustive move but it remains to be seen and confirmed.

If The Dollar Index bounces to close above 101.40 the current bearish picture is demolished
dollarindex d 0412

Quarterly Outlook

01 /

  • Macro outlook: Trump 2.0: Can the US have its cake and eat it, too?

    Quarterly Outlook

    Macro outlook: Trump 2.0: Can the US have its cake and eat it, too?

    John J. Hardy

    Global Head of Macro Strategy

  • Equity Outlook: The ride just got rougher

    Quarterly Outlook

    Equity Outlook: The ride just got rougher

    Charu Chanana

    Chief Investment Strategist

  • China Outlook: The choice between retaliation or de-escalation

    Quarterly Outlook

    China Outlook: The choice between retaliation or de-escalation

    Charu Chanana

    Chief Investment Strategist

  • Commodity Outlook: A bumpy road ahead calls for diversification

    Quarterly Outlook

    Commodity Outlook: A bumpy road ahead calls for diversification

    Ole Hansen

    Head of Commodity Strategy

  • FX outlook: Tariffs drive USD strength, until...?

    Quarterly Outlook

    FX outlook: Tariffs drive USD strength, until...?

    John J. Hardy

    Global Head of Macro Strategy

  • Fixed Income Outlook: Bonds Hit Reset. A New Equilibrium Emerges

    Quarterly Outlook

    Fixed Income Outlook: Bonds Hit Reset. A New Equilibrium Emerges

    Althea Spinozzi

    Head of Fixed Income Strategy

  • Equity Outlook: Will lower rates lift all boats in equities?

    Quarterly Outlook

    Equity Outlook: Will lower rates lift all boats in equities?

    Peter Garnry

    Chief Investment Strategist

    After a period of historically high equity index concentration driven by the 'Magnificent Seven' sto...
  • Commodity Outlook: Gold and silver continue to shine bright

    Quarterly Outlook

    Commodity Outlook: Gold and silver continue to shine bright

    Ole Hansen

    Head of Commodity Strategy

  • Macro Outlook: The US rate cut cycle has begun

    Quarterly Outlook

    Macro Outlook: The US rate cut cycle has begun

    Peter Garnry

    Chief Investment Strategist

    The Fed started the US rate cut cycle in Q3 and in this macro outlook we will explore how the rate c...
  • FX Outlook: USD in limbo amid political and policy jitters

    Quarterly Outlook

    FX Outlook: USD in limbo amid political and policy jitters

    Charu Chanana

    Chief Investment Strategist

    As we enter the final quarter of 2024, currency markets are set for heightened turbulence due to US ...

Content disclaimer

None of the information provided on this website constitutes an offer, solicitation, or endorsement to buy or sell any financial instrument, nor is it financial, investment, or trading advice. Saxo Bank A/S and its entities within the Saxo Bank Group provide execution-only services, with all trades and investments based on self-directed decisions. Analysis, research, and educational content is for informational purposes only and should not be considered advice nor a recommendation.

Saxo’s content may reflect the personal views of the author, which are subject to change without notice. Mentions of specific financial products are for illustrative purposes only and may serve to clarify financial literacy topics. Content classified as investment research is marketing material and does not meet legal requirements for independent research.

Before making any investment decisions, you should assess your own financial situation, needs, and objectives, and consider seeking independent professional advice. Saxo does not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of any information provided and assumes no liability for any errors, omissions, losses, or damages resulting from the use of this information.

Please refer to our full disclaimer and notification on non-independent investment research for more details.
- Notification on Non-Independent Investment Research (https://www.home.saxo/legal/niird/notification)
- Full disclaimer (https://www.home.saxo/legal/disclaimer/saxo-disclaimer)

Saxo Bank A/S (Headquarters)
Philip Heymans Alle 15
2900
Hellerup
Denmark

Contact Saxo

Select region

International
International

All trading and investing comes with risk, including but not limited to the potential to lose your entire invested amount.

Information on our international website (as selected from the globe drop-down) can be accessed worldwide and relates to Saxo Bank A/S as the parent company of the Saxo Bank Group. Any mention of the Saxo Bank Group refers to the overall organisation, including subsidiaries and branches under Saxo Bank A/S. Client agreements are made with the relevant Saxo entity based on your country of residence and are governed by the applicable laws of that entity's jurisdiction.

Apple and the Apple logo are trademarks of Apple Inc., registered in the US and other countries. App Store is a service mark of Apple Inc. Google Play and the Google Play logo are trademarks of Google LLC.