Quarterly Outlook
Macro outlook: Trump 2.0: Can the US have its cake and eat it, too?
John J. Hardy
Global Head of Macro Strategy
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Technical Update - EURUSD, USDJPY, GBPUSD, USDCHF, AUDUSD and USDCAD
Kim Cramer Larsson
Technical Analyst, Saxo Bank
Summary: EURUSD below key support at 1.0723, eyeing 1.0660-1.0600 levels
USDJPY extending uptrend could be testing 2022 peak at around 152
GBPUSD likely to test 1.25 support
USDCHF above 0.8820 resistance, likely taking out 0.89, eyeing 0.90
AUDUSD resuming downtrend looking at 0.64 support
USDCAD breaking bullish out of range, likely move to 1.3625
EURUSD has broken below key support at around 1.723 and below the 0.618 retracement thereby continuing its downtrend that is likely to take the pair to support at around 1.0660.
RSI is confirming the bearish picture that could push EURUSD to the 0.786 retracement, a Fibonacci retracement level often being reached in the FX market.
To demolish the bearish scenario a close above 1.0805
USDJPY broke above resistance at around 149.75 extending its uptrend that weas confirmed when closing above 148.80
Trading around the 1.618 projection of the latest correction there is no strong resistance until the 2022 peak at around 152
To revere the bullish picture a close below 148.80 is needed GBPUSD spiked yesterday higher to the top of the Cloud a few cents below 1.27 only to collapse resuming downtrend. A test of strong support at around 1.25 is likely.
The rising 100 DMA will add to the support strength
A close below 1.25 is likely fueling a another sell-off down to the 0.618 retracement level and support at 1.2375
USDCHF went straight through resistance at around 0.8820 and is close to testing the 0.618 retracement at 0.8896
RSI is showing positive sentiment indicating higher USDCHF. No strong resistance until around the 0.786 retracement at 0.9050
AUDUSD was sold off heavily yesterday after failing to break back above the 100 DMA thus continuing the downtrend unfolding the Shoulder-Head-Shoulder pattern potential.
Likely bearish move to support at around 0.64 but there is potential lower into the consolidation area.
A close above 0.6545 will likely demolish the bearish picture
Likely bearish move to support at around 0.64 but there is potential lower into the consolidation area.
A close above 0.6545 will likely demolish the bearish picture
USDCAD broke yesterday above upper ranger and resistance at 1.3545. That level is now a support currently being tested.
However, bullish trend is confirmed by positive sentiment on RSI and the higher close with short-term potential to the 0.618 retracement at 1.3625, but USDCAD could move to the 0.786 retracement at 1.3745 medium-term
A daily close below 1.3545 could jeopardize the bullish scenario.
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