Quarterly Outlook
Fixed Income Outlook: Bonds Hit Reset. A New Equilibrium Emerges
Althea Spinozzi
Head of Fixed Income Strategy
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Technical Update - FTSE 100, UK100 cfd & FTSE 250, UK250 Mid-cap cfd
Kim Cramer Larsson
Technical Analyst, Saxo Bank
Summary: FTSE 100 is on course to reach 8K after breaking all-time highs. Medium-term there is upside potential to 8,450
FTSE 250 uptrend is still intact but weakening and it could be a struggle to move higher.
Today's Saxo Market Call podcast.
Today's Market Quick Take from the Saxo Strategy Team
Today's Market Quick Take from the Saxo Strategy Team
FTSE 100
We need to use the bigger picture in an effort to project where FTSE 100 can potentially move to after it has broken above its all-time highs.
FTSE 100 is trading in a medium-term uptrend surpassing the 1.382 projection of the last bigger correction which occurred with-in the trading range FTSE was caught the entire year of 2022.
A 2.00 (200%) projection of the correction is roughly the same projected upper level if the side ways range FTSE was trading in last year is shifted upwards i.e. around 8,450 as illustrated by the two vertical arrows.
Weekly RSI is bullish and with no divergence indicating higher FTSE levels are likely.
1.618 projection at 8,117 could be reached with-in a couple of weeks.
Short-term FTSE 100 is on course to break the 8K mark trading in a rising wedge like pattern.
However, there is divergence on RSI indicating a weakening of the uptrend and a potential short-term exhaustion.
However, at the time of writing RSI has broken above its falling trendline. A daily close above will indicate we could see a push higher possibly to the 2.00 projection of the last minor correction at 8,040.
If RSI closes above the horizontal dashed line the divergence has been cancelled (traded out). See RSI explanation at the end of this article)
UK100 cfd levels: If breaking below 7,848 a move down to 7,700 could be seen. But trend is uptrend despite RSI divergence and a move to around 8,045 is in the cards. A test of the upper trendline in the wedge pattern is not unlikely.
FTSE 250 is testing its medium-term rising trendline. Uptrend is intact and a weekly close below 15,317 is needed to reverse that.
RSI is bullish indicating higher FTSE 250 levels are likely. Medium-term strong resistance at around 21,485.
Short-term the uptrend is intact with FTSE 250 bouncing from the lower trendline in its rising channel
However, RSI is showing divergence indicating a weakening of the uptrend. If FTSE 250 breaks below the lower rising trendline a correction could be seen down to around key support at around 19,574.
But for now the trend is your friend and FTSE 250 could push for a move towards last week’s peak.
UK250 mid-cap levels: Support at 19,922. A break below could see UK250 drop to 19,500
RSI divergence explained: When instrument price is making a new high/low but RSI values are not making new high/low at the same time. That is a sign of imbalance in the market and an weakening of the uptrend/downtrend. Divergence or imbalance in the market can go on for quite some time but not forever. It is an indication of an exhaustion of the trend
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