Quarterly Outlook
Macro outlook: Trump 2.0: Can the US have its cake and eat it, too?
John J. Hardy
Global Head of Macro Strategy
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Technical Update - ASX 200 broken support. Hang Seng & China A50 continuing their down trends
Kim Cramer Larsson
Technical Analyst, Saxo Bank
Summary: ASX200 broken below support and seem set for lower levels
Hang Seng and China A50 in downtrends that could lead to levels not seen since Q4 2022
ASX 200 closed Friday below minor support at around 7,078 and seems destined to drop to strong support at around 6,900. RSI closed below 40 threshold now showing negative sentiment supports the bearish outlook for ASX.
Medium-term ASX 200 seems set for a test of strong support at around 6,900. However, weekly RSI is still positive and needs to close below 40 to turn negative. If it doesn’t 6,900 is likely to be tested and quite possibly broken.
If ASX bounces from 7K and weekly RSI also bounces from 40 threshold a move back to 7,200-7,300 could be seen
A close above 7,370 will reverse the downtrend
Hang Seng Index is on course to test support around 18K. A close below is likely to further fueling the selling pressure.
The RSI is already below 40 threshold confirming the bearish picture that is likely to send the Index below 18K.
Medium-term Hang Seng has been in a falling trend for several weeks now. Weekly RSI is testing 40 threshold and a close below will further confirm the bearish picture. A bearish trend that can take the Index to Q4 2022 lows. Strong support at around 17K.
To reverse the bearish medium-trend trend a close above 20,156 is needed.
China A50 future is finding support just above 12,200. Negative RSI indicates that the A50 could drop further. A close below 12,200 is likely to intensify the selling pressure down to around 11,830.
Medium-term A50 is trading in a wide falling channel. A down trend supported by negative RSI could take the A50 to Q4 2022 levels at 11.830 and 11,335.
To demolish the bearish picture a close above 13,040 is needed.
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