Quarterly Outlook
Macro outlook: Trump 2.0: Can the US have its cake and eat it, too?
John J. Hardy
Global Head of Macro Strategy
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Technical Update - SP500 and Nasdaq 100 could gain an additional 3-6%, but the uptrend is showing signs of being stretched and fragile
Kim Cramer Larsson
Technical Analyst, Saxo Bank
- Corrections in US indices are over. With new all-time highs, the top and reversal patterns have been cancelled
- S&P 500/US500 and Nasdaq 100/USNAS100 could gain a further 3-6% over the next few weeks
- Indicators are pointing to trend exhaustion, meaning the uptrends are quite stretched
- No top and reversal patterns in place medium-term just yet, however.
S&P 500 closed yesterday at a new record high, thus taking out and cancelling/reversing the top and reversal pattern from 23 May. The reversal has been fairly limited, only down to the 0.382 retracement at 5,193. The index is now set for higher levels. A bullish move to 5,435–5,492 is in the cards.
In a previous Technical Update a Cup with a Handle-like pattern with upside potential to 5,722 was described. The two dashed vertical arrows are illustating the upside potential.
The 0.786 extension of the cup is at 5,483, between the 1.618 and the 1.764 projection of the April correction at 5,457–5,502. Almost the same projection targets as the levels mentioned in the first section.
If the S&P 500 does not slide back to close below 5,190, that bullish scenario will stay intact.
However, the uptrend is a stretched.
Weekly traded volume is and has been in decline since mid-Q1. A decline that has accelerated over the past few weeks.
RSI is currently showing divergence, indicating uptrend exhaustion. A weekly close above 79 is required to cancel that.
A weekly Index close below 4,953 will establish a bearish medium-term trend.
However, there is yet no top and reversal pattern in place to indicate the bullish trend is ending. Divergence in volume and RSI are merely just warning signs that a trend is stretched and in exhaustive mode.
Divergence is when an instrument is making a higher high value, but the technical indicators such as RSI and volume are declining. It is a sign of imbalance in the market. An imbalance or divergence that cannot go on forever.
US500: short-term upside potential to 5,442–5,502. A close below 5,185 will reverse the uptrend.
Nasdaq 100 is showing almost similar behaviour; correction down to the 0.382 retracement. Yesterday, new all-time high with short-term upside potential to 19,350.
Medium-term the Cup with a Handle has upside potential to 19,550–20,127 - see weekly chart.
Declining RSI values and traded volume are indicating that the bullish trend is stretched and in an exhaustion phase.
A weekly RSI close above 75.76 will cancel the divergence, supporting even higher index levels.
Medium-term key support at around 16,969. A daily close below 18,189 will demolish and reverse the bullish trend short-term.
USNAS100 CFD: Short-term upside potential to 19,404. A daily close below 18,186 will reverse the bullish scenario.
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