Technical Analyst, Saxo Bank
Nasdaq 100 rejected at key resistance level. Could sell-off down to around 16,549-16,276
US500 and USNAS100 CFD levels in the text below
S&P 500 was rejected at the 55 daily Moving Average and seems likely to resume its downtrend.
The strength indicator, RSI, is still showing negative sentiment, and a close back below the 40 threshold will further confirm this.
Key strong support is around 4,953. A daily close below this level is likely to lead to a sell-off down to the 4,845-4,800 area.
For S&P 500 to establish a bullish trend, a daily close above 5,146 is required.
Nasdaq 100 was rejected at the resistance around 17,808 and closed Tuesday below both the Cloud and the 100 daily Moving Average.
The strength indicator, RSI, is still showing negative sentiment, and a close back below the 40 threshold will further confirm Nasdaq’s bearish trend.
This bearish trend could take the index down to strong support around 16,963.
A daily close below this level is likely to lead to an increased sell-off down to around 16,276.
To demolish this bearish scenario, a close above 17,808 is a minimum requirement. To establish a bullish trend, a close back above the Cloud (shaded area) is needed.
2024: The wasted year
Markets are driven by election optimism, overshadowing growing debt and liquidity concerns. The 2024 elections loom large, but economic fundamentals and debt issues warrant cautious investment.
As US economic slowdown hints at a shift away from exceptionalism, USD faces downside with looming Fed cuts. AUD and NZD set to outperform as their rate cuts lag. JPY gains on carry unwind bets and BOJ pivot.
Amid AI and obesity drug excitement, equities see varied prospects: neutral on overvalued US stocks, negative on Japan due to JPY risks, positive on Europe. European defence stocks gain appeal.
With the economic slowdown, quality assets will gain favour, especially sovereign bonds up to 5 years. Central banks' potential rate cuts in Q2 suggest extending duration, despite policy and inflation concerns.
Commodities poised for rebound. The "Year of the Metal" boosts gold and silver, copper awaits rate cuts. Grains may recover, natural gas stabilises. Gold targets $2,300-$2,500/oz, copper's breakout could signal growth.
Markets are driven by election optimism, overshadowing growing debt and liquidity concerns. The 2024 elections loom large, but economic fundamentals and debt issues warrant cautious investment.
As US economic slowdown hints at a shift away from exceptionalism, USD faces downside with looming Fed cuts. AUD and NZD set to outperform as their rate cuts lag. JPY gains on carry unwind bets and BOJ pivot.
Amid AI and obesity drug excitement, equities see varied prospects: neutral on overvalued US stocks, negative on Japan due to JPY risks, positive on Europe. European defence stocks gain appeal.
With the economic slowdown, quality assets will gain favour, especially sovereign bonds up to 5 years. Central banks' potential rate cuts in Q2 suggest extending duration, despite policy and inflation concerns.
Commodities poised for rebound. The "Year of the Metal" boosts gold and silver, copper awaits rate cuts. Grains may recover, natural gas stabilises. Gold targets $2,300-$2,500/oz, copper's breakout could signal growth.