Quarterly Outlook
Macro outlook: Trump 2.0: Can the US have its cake and eat it, too?
John J. Hardy
Global Head of Macro Strategy
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Technical Update - S&P 500 testing medium term falling trend. Nasdaq 100 struggling to gain upside momentum
Kim Cramer Larsson
Technical Analyst, Saxo Bank
S&P 500 is bring rejected at the medium-term falling trendline just a few points shy of the strong resistance at 4,110. This week and especially the end to the week could be crucial for rest of the year. If S&P500 closes above 4,110 there is room for more upside towards 4,200-4,300.
But if S&P500 closes below 3,990 the support at 3,906 is likely to be tested and lower levels below 3,900 towards the end of the year should be expected
RSI break out direction from its narrow slightly rising channel could be a guide for the scenario to play out.
US500 cfd seems to be forming a rising wedge like pattern losing steam just shy of strong resistance at around 4,119. A close above could extend the uptrend to 4,300.
A bearish break out of the wedge i.e., a close blow lower rising trendline could spur a sell off down to 3,800.
Nasdaq 100 is struggling to close above resistance at 12,060. A close above is needed for Nasdaq to regain traction moving higher towards resistance at 12,467 and the upper medium-term falling black trend line.
If Nasdaq drops back and closes below 11,450 bear trend is set to resume. The Index could then be set for a test of the October lows.
RSI closed above the 60 threshold on the last trading day of November thereby showing bullish sentiment indicating higher levels. Next couple of days are likely to be crucial
USNAS100 cfd is struggling to close above 12,047 resistance which is needed for further upside for next resistance at 12,771 and getting back above 200 daily SMA
Support at 11,445 . If breaking below USNAS100 could quickly shed 1K points dropping to test October lows.
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