background image

Technical Update - US stock Indices indecisive and could be range bound for a while

Equities 3 minutes to read
KCL
Kim Cramer Larsson

Technical Analyst, Saxo Bank

Summary:  US stock market seems indecisive and could be range bound for a while. Technical indicators do not give clear signals
S&P 500 rejected at falling trendline
Nasdaq still struggling for upside momentum
Dow Jones uptrend seems to be weakening but looks the strongest of the main Indices with uptrend on both short- and medium-term
Russell 2000 is close to test key resistance


Today's Saxo Market Call podcast.
Today's Market Quick Take from the Saxo Strategy Team

S&P 500
was rejected at the medium-term falling trendline yesterday to close once again below 4K. Indicators are inconclusive; RSI closed Friday above 60 and 55 daily moving average (SMA) is rising i.e., in positive sentiment short- to medium-term but 200 daily SMA is declining i.e., underlying negative sentiment medium- to longer-term.
The rejection at the falling trendline is also negative.
Trend is also still down and S&P 500 needs to close above 4,110 to reverse that.

However, adding the Ichomoku cloud indicator (second chart image) the picture is bullish. The index is above the cloud which indicates further upside potential. The key resistance is 4,110 though meaning next couple of days could be decisive.
If S&P 500 closes below 3,877 selling pressure is likely to resume pushing the Index towards key support at 3,764.
If S&P 500 closes above 4,110 there is short-to medium-term potential to 4,300

SP500 d 18jan
Source all charts and data: Saxo Group
SP500 d 18jan cloud

Nasdaq 100 tested the 0.618 retracement at 11,594 during yesterday’s session. Sentiment is still bearish however, with RSI still below 60 and all Moving Averages declining. If Nasdaq can move higher to close RSI above 60 threshold i.e., shifting to positive sentiment there could be further upside potential. But the falling (black) trendline would still be a resistance it needs to break and for Nasdaq 100 to further confirm uptrend a close above 12,167 is needed. If that plays out Nasdaq would be back above the 200 SMA which is still in decline.
If the Index slides back lower to close below 11,050 Nasdaq 100 is likely to test October lows around 10,480 and would be likely to drop lower .

On the cloud Nasdaq 100 is testing the upper range of the cloud. If it fails to break above it is a negative indication.

Nasdaq100 d 18jan
Nasdaq100 d 18jan cloud

Dow Jones Industrial was hit by heavy selling after being rejected at the 0.786 retracement at around 34,255. If Dow Jones slides lower to close below 33,420 selling pressure could increase and a test of key support at around 32,573 is likely.
Still RSI divergence - a sign of a weakening of the uptrend – but it is still showing positive sentiment. Bottom line RSI seems indecisive here. RSI must close above the horizontal line to cancel the divergence.

DJI d 18jan

Russell 2000 is close to test key resistance at 1,906. RSI above 60 indicates a break is likely . A close above could lead the way to higher levels with no resistance until around 2,022 which is also the 1.618 Fibo projection November-December correction.
For Russell 2000 to reverse this bullish picture a close below 1,792 is needed.

Russell2000 d 18jan

RSI divergence: When instrument price is making a new high/low but RSI values are not making new high/low at the same time. That is a sign of imbalance in the market and an weakening of the uptrend/downtrend. Divergence or imbalance in the market can go on for quite some time but not forever. It is an indication of an exhaustion of the trend

Quarterly Outlook

01 /

  • Macro outlook: Trump 2.0: Can the US have its cake and eat it, too?

    Quarterly Outlook

    Macro outlook: Trump 2.0: Can the US have its cake and eat it, too?

    John J. Hardy

    Global Head of Macro Strategy

  • Equity Outlook: The ride just got rougher

    Quarterly Outlook

    Equity Outlook: The ride just got rougher

    Charu Chanana

    Chief Investment Strategist

  • China Outlook: The choice between retaliation or de-escalation

    Quarterly Outlook

    China Outlook: The choice between retaliation or de-escalation

    Charu Chanana

    Chief Investment Strategist

  • Commodity Outlook: A bumpy road ahead calls for diversification

    Quarterly Outlook

    Commodity Outlook: A bumpy road ahead calls for diversification

    Ole Hansen

    Head of Commodity Strategy

  • FX outlook: Tariffs drive USD strength, until...?

    Quarterly Outlook

    FX outlook: Tariffs drive USD strength, until...?

    John J. Hardy

    Global Head of Macro Strategy

  • Fixed Income Outlook: Bonds Hit Reset. A New Equilibrium Emerges

    Quarterly Outlook

    Fixed Income Outlook: Bonds Hit Reset. A New Equilibrium Emerges

    Althea Spinozzi

    Head of Fixed Income Strategy

  • Equity Outlook: Will lower rates lift all boats in equities?

    Quarterly Outlook

    Equity Outlook: Will lower rates lift all boats in equities?

    Peter Garnry

    Chief Investment Strategist

    After a period of historically high equity index concentration driven by the 'Magnificent Seven' sto...
  • Commodity Outlook: Gold and silver continue to shine bright

    Quarterly Outlook

    Commodity Outlook: Gold and silver continue to shine bright

    Ole Hansen

    Head of Commodity Strategy

  • Macro Outlook: The US rate cut cycle has begun

    Quarterly Outlook

    Macro Outlook: The US rate cut cycle has begun

    Peter Garnry

    Chief Investment Strategist

    The Fed started the US rate cut cycle in Q3 and in this macro outlook we will explore how the rate c...
  • FX Outlook: USD in limbo amid political and policy jitters

    Quarterly Outlook

    FX Outlook: USD in limbo amid political and policy jitters

    Charu Chanana

    Chief Investment Strategist

    As we enter the final quarter of 2024, currency markets are set for heightened turbulence due to US ...

Content disclaimer

None of the information provided on this website constitutes an offer, solicitation, or endorsement to buy or sell any financial instrument, nor is it financial, investment, or trading advice. Saxo Bank A/S and its entities within the Saxo Bank Group provide execution-only services, with all trades and investments based on self-directed decisions. Analysis, research, and educational content is for informational purposes only and should not be considered advice nor a recommendation.

Saxo’s content may reflect the personal views of the author, which are subject to change without notice. Mentions of specific financial products are for illustrative purposes only and may serve to clarify financial literacy topics. Content classified as investment research is marketing material and does not meet legal requirements for independent research.

Before making any investment decisions, you should assess your own financial situation, needs, and objectives, and consider seeking independent professional advice. Saxo does not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of any information provided and assumes no liability for any errors, omissions, losses, or damages resulting from the use of this information.

Please refer to our full disclaimer and notification on non-independent investment research for more details.
- Notification on Non-Independent Investment Research (https://www.home.saxo/legal/niird/notification)
- Full disclaimer (https://www.home.saxo/legal/disclaimer/saxo-disclaimer)

Saxo Bank A/S (Headquarters)
Philip Heymans Alle 15
2900
Hellerup
Denmark

Contact Saxo

Select region

International
International

All trading and investing comes with risk, including but not limited to the potential to lose your entire invested amount.

Information on our international website (as selected from the globe drop-down) can be accessed worldwide and relates to Saxo Bank A/S as the parent company of the Saxo Bank Group. Any mention of the Saxo Bank Group refers to the overall organisation, including subsidiaries and branches under Saxo Bank A/S. Client agreements are made with the relevant Saxo entity based on your country of residence and are governed by the applicable laws of that entity's jurisdiction.

Apple and the Apple logo are trademarks of Apple Inc., registered in the US and other countries. App Store is a service mark of Apple Inc. Google Play and the Google Play logo are trademarks of Google LLC.