Quarterly Outlook
Macro outlook: Trump 2.0: Can the US have its cake and eat it, too?
John J. Hardy
Global Head of Macro Strategy
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Technical Update - S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 running away from range bound Russell 2000
Kim Cramer Larsson
Technical Analyst, Saxo Bank
Summary: Big cap Indices S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 are leaving Small caps in the dust. Range bound Russell 2000 could resume downtrend
S&P 500 trading in a rising channel like pattern closing in on resistance at around 4,195. A close above paves the way towards strong resistance at around 4,308. No divergence on RSI supports the uptrend.
To reverse the uptrend a close below 3,906. If closing below the lower rising trendline and below 4,069 a set back to around 4K could be seen.
However, All Moving Averages are rising strongly indicating an bullish underlying sentiment.
Nasdaq 100 is short-term range bound but still in an uptrend overall. IF Nasdaq 100 takes out 13,189 the Index is likely to test 13,700 resistance area.
A close below 12,846 a correction down to around 12,500 possibly dipping down to around 12,518 where 55 daily Moving Average will provide support.
RSI indicates Nasdaq is likely to trade higher in coming 1-2 weeks.
Small cap Russell 2000 Index is underperforming the Big caps. Index seems to be caught in a range between 1,700 and 1,800. However, a daily close below 1,742 down trend is likely to resume for a move down to around 1,653.
Upside potential seems limited. 1,825 is a strong resistance level with both 55, 100 and 200 daily Moving Averages coming down putting a lid on the Index.
A close above 1,825 is needed for the Small cap index to fuel a rally higher
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