Macro: Sandcastle economics
Invest wisely in Q3 2024: Discover SaxoStrats' insights on navigating a stable yet fragile global economy.
You can access both of our platforms from a single Saxo account.
Technical Update - Vestas Wind jumping but still struggling for uptrend. Orsted in tight range. Siemens Energy building on its rebound
Kim Cramer Larsson
Technical Analyst, Saxo Bank
Summary: Vestas Wind jumping at the open but struggling to stay up. Vestas has a long way to move before cancelling top and reversal patterns both short-and medium-term. Down trend could resume as indicators are inconclusive
Orsted in a tight trading range and needs to break out for trend direction
Siemens Energy has bounced strongly after the 2023 collapse. The troubled stock seems set for further rebound
Vestas Wind is jumping at the open after better than expected earnings. However, the technical picture is still fairly bearish and the indicators are inconclusive.
On the Daily chart Vestas formed a Bearish Engulfing candle on the first trading day of 2024 (circled) taking back the last two day’s gain of 2023, followed by a closing of the bullish gap. A strong signal of weakness.
For Vestas to cancel that top and reversal picture a close above 219.15 is needed.
On the weekly chart an even more clear Bearish Engulfing candle was formed (than on the daily). Vestas also failed to close above resistance at around 217.45 which is a sign of weakness.
However, RSI is on both daily and weekly in positive sentiment and if daily RSI can close back above 60 threshold it would an indication of buyers could have the strength to test the January peak around 219.15
If Vestas is closing the opening gap of today the support at around 186.50 is likely to come under pressure. A close below and Vestas will resume downtrend
Orsted is trading in a tight range between 401 and 369 but with a strong support at around 352.
A close above or below is decisive for the trend direction.
A close above 401 could very well give energy to a move towards 500 with resistance at around 447.40. IF RSI is also closing back above 60 threshold it will confirm a bullish break out.
A close below 352 will confirm downtrend has resumed with potential to push Orsted down to around 300.
If Orsted is closing below 352 RSI is most likely closing back below 40 threshold i.e., in negative sentiment further confirming a bearish trend.
Medium-term Orsted is still in a bearish trend despite bouncing strongly from support at round 276.
A weekly close above 419.90 is likely to establish a bullish trend
Energy has over the past 4 months bounced strongly after the total collapse starting back in June 2023.
Currently testing the 200 Daily Moving Average and resistance at around 14.55.
A close below 13.18 will demolish that bullish picture. A close blow 12.42 and Siemens Energy is likely to enter in to a bearish trend
Author is a holding a position in Siemens Energy
Latest Market Insights
Quarterly Outlook 2024 Q3
Sandcastle economics
-
-
Bonds: What to do until inflation stabilises
Discover strategies for managing bonds as US and European yields remain rangebound due to uncertain inflation and evolving monetary policies.
-
Equities: Are we blowing bubbles again
Explore key trends and opportunities in European equities and electrification theme as market dynamics echo 2021's rally.
-
FX: Risk-on currencies to surge against havens
Explore the outlook for USD, AUD, NZD, and EM carry trades as risk-on currencies are set to outperform in Q3 2024.
-
Commodities: Energy and grains in focus as metals pause
Energy and grains to shine as metals pause. Discover key trends and market drivers for commodities in Q3 2024.