Quarterly Outlook
Fixed Income Outlook: Bonds Hit Reset. A New Equilibrium Emerges
Althea Spinozzi
Head of Fixed Income Strategy
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Wall Street lets the good times rest
Michael O’Neill
FX Trader, Loonieviews.net
Summary: Q2 is just one day old, and Wall Street traders are taking a break. At least that is what this morning’s open suggests.
The three major indices started with small losses, but after three “up” days including yesterday’s impressive gains, the dip is likely due to a bit of profit-taking and therefore short-lived. The Nasdaq was in positive territory by 1415 GMT and the S&P 500 was flat.
US Durable Goods Orders in February were down 1.6%, better than the forecast but worse than January’s 0.1% rise which was revised down from 0.4%. The ex-transportation component also disappointed. However, the data and its minimal impact on markets will quickly be forgotten with traders looking ahead to Friday’s nonfarm payrolls report.
US Durable Goods Orders in February were down 1.6%, better than the forecast but worse than January’s 0.1% rise which was revised down from 0.4%. The ex-transportation component also disappointed. However, the data and its minimal impact on markets will quickly be forgotten with traders looking ahead to Friday’s nonfarm payrolls report.
FX markets have been one big yawn since New York opened. EURUSD drifted in a 1.1196-1.1210 range, and USDJPY held to a 111.28-111.38 band. GBPUSD looked like it was going to get exciting as prices dropped from 1.3066 to 1.3014 but that move died, and prices are unchanged as of 14:00 GMT.
USDCAD is holding its own in the face of sliding Antipodean currencies. AUDUSD and NZDUSD have not recovered from a somewhat dovish Reserve Bank of Australia statement or soft Kiwi data. That is thanks to surging oil prices and a Bank of Canada dove with a bit of a bite.
BoC Governor Stephen Poloz was at his doublespeak best yesterday in a speech in Iqaluit. He said the outlook for the domestic economy continues to warrant rates below the neutral range and said that the “data showed a “mixed picture” which must be carefully monitored. Then he said “there are clear signs that Canada is adjusting to the challenges. After taking into account the economy’s structural adjustment to lower oil prices that is still going on, we can see many areas of encouraging economic growth.”
His dovish comments with a bit of a bite, combined with WTI oil prices flirting with $62.00/barrel led to USDCAD briefly breaking below the 100-day moving average at 1.3320. A decisive break of this level targets 1.3193, the 200-day moving average.
USDCAD is holding its own in the face of sliding Antipodean currencies. AUDUSD and NZDUSD have not recovered from a somewhat dovish Reserve Bank of Australia statement or soft Kiwi data. That is thanks to surging oil prices and a Bank of Canada dove with a bit of a bite.
BoC Governor Stephen Poloz was at his doublespeak best yesterday in a speech in Iqaluit. He said the outlook for the domestic economy continues to warrant rates below the neutral range and said that the “data showed a “mixed picture” which must be carefully monitored. Then he said “there are clear signs that Canada is adjusting to the challenges. After taking into account the economy’s structural adjustment to lower oil prices that is still going on, we can see many areas of encouraging economic growth.”
His dovish comments with a bit of a bite, combined with WTI oil prices flirting with $62.00/barrel led to USDCAD briefly breaking below the 100-day moving average at 1.3320. A decisive break of this level targets 1.3193, the 200-day moving average.
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