FXO Market Update - CHF in demand

Big risk off move yesterday with S&P down 4%. In FX we saw big move in to safe heaven where the biggest mover was EURCHF which dropped 1.5% as hawkish comment from SNB supported the move. USDCHF has been one of the favorite longs over the last months and we see positions being reduced now and it is likely we can see more buying of CHF. First support in EURCHF comes in at 1.0200 and the big support is down at 1.0000, which is the low from beginning of March.

EURCHF 1 month is up from 7.00 to 8.40 in two days and 1 month risk reversal has moved from 0.40 to 1.00 for EURCHF puts. This is the highest level in EURCHF 1 month since the beginning of march when 1 month spiked up to 10.25 after Russia invaded Ukraine.

We like to play further downside in EURCHF with ratio put spreads or covered put after the big move in spot over the last days and the spike in vol and risk reversal.

Buy 1 month 1.0200 EURCHF put in 1 mio
Sell 1 month 1.0000 EURCHF put in 2 mio
Cost 30 pips
Alternative

Sell 2 week 1.0150 EURCHF (covered) put
Receive 24 pips

Spot ref.: 1.0295

• The Top/Bottom charts shows the top 5 and bottom 5 values/changes for at-the-money vol, risk reversal (RR) and risk premium of the 45 currency pairs we are tracking.
• Risk premium: Implied (Imp) minus realized volatility. A positive risk premium means implied volatility trades above realized volatility, i.e. the implied volatility can be seen as “rich”.
• Change: The difference between current price/volatility and where it closed 1w ago.

FX Options Trading:

You should be aware that in purchasing Foreign Exchange Options, your potential loss will be the amount of the premium paid for the option, plus any fees or transaction charges that are applicable, should the option not achieve its strike price on the expiry date

If you write an option, the risk involved is considerably higher than buying an option. You may be liable for margin to maintain your position and a loss may be sustained well in excess of the premium received.

By writing an option, you accept a legal obligation to purchase or sell the underlying asset if the option is exercised against you; however far the market price has moved away from the strike. If you already own the underlying asset that you have contracted to sell, your risk will be limited.

If you do not own the underlying asset the risk can be unlimited. Only experienced persons should contemplate writing uncovered options, then only after securing full detail of the applicable conditions and potential risk exposure.

Learn more about FX Options:

Forex Options – An introduction

Forex Options – Exotic options