FXO Market Update - Nov 23

USD continues the climb higher after higher than expected US CPI last week and increased inflation fears. The dollar got an extra boost yesterday as Biden nominated Powell for a second term as FED chair, which was seen as the hawkish choice. USD is sharply higher over the last two weeks and the USD index trades at the highest level since July last year.

GBPUSD still hasn’t made a clean break of the 1.3400 support from end of September. Spot did another test yesterday without been able to build any momentum to the downside and spot currently trades just below 1.3400.

USD vols are higher in general over the last weeks with GBPUSD 1 month up from 6.85 to 7.75 over the last two weeks. All currency pairs trades with a positive risk premium after the last weeks surge in vol, with GBPUSD risk premium at 0.6 vol. There has been strong demand to buy USD calls which has moved risk reversals higher for USD calls. 1 month GBPUSD risk reversal trades at 0.9 vol for the downside, favor GBP puts/USD calls.

We like to play downside GBPUSD through ratio put spreads to take advantage of both the high vol and risk reversal. Alternative sell covered puts, keep a short delta position against it, or sell outright put if you think spot wont break down below 1.3400.

Buy 1 month 1.3350 GBPUSD put in 1 mio
Sell 1 month 1.3150 GBPUSD put in 1.5 mio
Cost 46 pips
The 1.3350 cost 106 pips on its own.

Alternative

Sell 1 month 1.3200 GBPUSD put
Receive 50 pips

• The Top/Bottom charts shows the top 5 and bottom 5 values/changes for at-the-money vol, risk reversal (RR) and risk premium of the 45 currency pairs we are tracking.
• Risk premium: Implied (Imp) minus realized volatility. A positive risk premium means implied volatility trades above realized volatility, i.e. the implied volatility can be seen as “rich”.
• Change: The difference between current price/volatility and where it closed 1w ago.

FX Options Trading:

You should be aware that in purchasing Foreign Exchange Options, your potential loss will be the amount of the premium paid for the option, plus any fees or transaction charges that are applicable, should the option not achieve its strike price on the expiry date

If you write an option, the risk involved is considerably higher than buying an option. You may be liable for margin to maintain your position and a loss may be sustained well in excess of the premium received.

By writing an option, you accept a legal obligation to purchase or sell the underlying asset if the option is exercised against you; however far the market price has moved away from the strike. If you already own the underlying asset that you have contracted to sell, your risk will be limited.

If you do not own the underlying asset the risk can be unlimited. Only experienced persons should contemplate writing uncovered options, then only after securing full detail of the applicable conditions and potential risk exposure.

Learn more about FX Options:

Forex Options – An introduction

Forex Options – Exotic options