Quarterly Outlook
Macro outlook: Trump 2.0: Can the US have its cake and eat it, too?
John J. Hardy
Global Head of Macro Strategy
You can access both of our platforms from a single Saxo account.
'And the Oscar goes to....''
Michael O’Neill
FX Trader, Loonieviews.net
Summary: If Academy Awards were given out to financial markets, NZDUSD would win for best performance of a G10 currency pair since Friday’s close,
In addition, AUDUSD would win for best-supporting risk currency, GBPUSD would get the Oscar for best drama and President Trump would win for best make-up and hair styling.
President Trump clocked oil prices and the Canadian dollar with his early morning tweet: “Oil prices getting too high. OPEC, please relax and take it easy. World cannot take a price hike - fragile!”. Those 19 words boosted USDCAD from 1.3115 to 1.3171 while knocking WTI down 3.0%.
Markets are feeling frisky with a positive shift to global risk sentiment. The US plan to delay a tariff increase on Chinese imports is a big factor as are rising hopes that the Brexit deadline is extended. President Trump’s plan to meet with North Korea’s Kim Jong-Un may have helped. It was just a year ago since North Korea’s nuclear intentions were a flash-point for risk-on or risk off trades.
Wall Street opened with a pop. The three major indices are well into positive territory on hopes of a US/China trade agreement.
Friday’s rumour that Barrick Gold Corporation (GOLD: NYSE) would merge or buy Newmont Mining (NEM: NYSE) proved true. It is a hostile takeover. Barrick claims it will unlock $7 billion NPV of real synergies and unprecedented value creation. Newmont Mining is not as thrilled. It claims Barrick proposed combination overstates rewards while ignoring risks. Shareholders in both entities sold shares. NEM is down 2.0%, and GOLD is down 0.73%.
President Trump clocked oil prices and the Canadian dollar with his early morning tweet: “Oil prices getting too high. OPEC, please relax and take it easy. World cannot take a price hike - fragile!”. Those 19 words boosted USDCAD from 1.3115 to 1.3171 while knocking WTI down 3.0%.
Markets are feeling frisky with a positive shift to global risk sentiment. The US plan to delay a tariff increase on Chinese imports is a big factor as are rising hopes that the Brexit deadline is extended. President Trump’s plan to meet with North Korea’s Kim Jong-Un may have helped. It was just a year ago since North Korea’s nuclear intentions were a flash-point for risk-on or risk off trades.
Wall Street opened with a pop. The three major indices are well into positive territory on hopes of a US/China trade agreement.
Friday’s rumour that Barrick Gold Corporation (GOLD: NYSE) would merge or buy Newmont Mining (NEM: NYSE) proved true. It is a hostile takeover. Barrick claims it will unlock $7 billion NPV of real synergies and unprecedented value creation. Newmont Mining is not as thrilled. It claims Barrick proposed combination overstates rewards while ignoring risks. Shareholders in both entities sold shares. NEM is down 2.0%, and GOLD is down 0.73%.
Latest Market Insights
Quarterly Outlook
-
-
Quarterly Outlook
Equity Outlook: The ride just got rougher
Charu Chanana
Chief Investment Strategist
-
Quarterly Outlook
China Outlook: The choice between retaliation or de-escalation
Charu Chanana
Chief Investment Strategist
-
Quarterly Outlook
Commodity Outlook: A bumpy road ahead calls for diversification
Ole Hansen
Head of Commodity Strategy
-
Quarterly Outlook
FX outlook: Tariffs drive USD strength, until...?
John J. Hardy
Global Head of Macro Strategy
-
Quarterly Outlook
Fixed Income Outlook: Bonds Hit Reset. A New Equilibrium Emerges
Althea Spinozzi
Head of Fixed Income Strategy
-
Quarterly Outlook
Equity Outlook: Will lower rates lift all boats in equities?
Peter Garnry
Chief Investment Strategist
After a period of historically high equity index concentration driven by the 'Magnificent Seven' sto... -
Quarterly Outlook
Commodity Outlook: Gold and silver continue to shine bright
Ole Hansen
Head of Commodity Strategy
-
Quarterly Outlook
Macro Outlook: The US rate cut cycle has begun
Peter Garnry
Chief Investment Strategist
The Fed started the US rate cut cycle in Q3 and in this macro outlook we will explore how the rate c... -
Quarterly Outlook
FX Outlook: USD in limbo amid political and policy jitters
Charu Chanana
Chief Investment Strategist
As we enter the final quarter of 2024, currency markets are set for heightened turbulence due to US ...