Four FX charts: USD weak but not yet breaking, AUDJPY and NOK.

NZDUSD – bouncing off key technical point
NZDUSD has reversed sharply intraday and from a very interesting technical level – the 61.8% retracement of the last large sell-off wave from mid-summer. Today’s action also straddled the 200-day moving average. Note that the prior choppy rally wave into this summer was checked by each of he first major three Fibo retracements. Also note that the latest rally broke through a fairly well defined head and shoulders formation neckline (the blue line). If bears are set to make a stand – this looks like the place to do it, although we won’t have signs of a bearish reversal unless we see a quick retreat to perhaps 0.6400-25.

AUDJPY – the good old risk proxy, or what?
The Aussie has suffered disproportionately to some other traditional risk-correlated instruments on episodic Australian data weakness and the loss of so much of its traditional yield advantage relative to other currencies in recent years. The last couple of days of conflicting US-China trade deal headlines has whipsawed the action both ways, but the pair has yet to take out the 61.8% retracement of the latest sell-off rally around 74.80 after rejecting the extension higher. The chart is in a bit of limbo at these levels, but starts to confirm the importance of that recent 74.80 top on a solid sell-off bar or two and break of the trend-line, with more structural bearish implications on a breakdown through the Ichimoku cloud.

EURNOK – twice rejected, twice shy
The EURNOK recently witness a bullish rejected of an attempted break-down lower, although it never achieved a take-out of the downside swing levels and psychological objective of 10.00 on the downside. Then, on the recent rally, a brief extension higher above the local pivot and 61.8% retracement of the sell-off from the top at around 10.181 in turn was rejected on a whipsaw in US-China trade deal headlines and rally in crude oil. Maximum limbo here for EURNOK trades, with a strong headwind for NOK bulls from seasonality as NOK has been weak into year-end several times in recent years. Clear that EURNOK bears (NOK bulls) need a takeout of the 10.00 level for a structural bearish argument, while EURNOK bulls will look for a solid close above 10.20 for at least a run to the top – something that would likely coincide with risk off/crude down/US-China trade stand-off, etc.