CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 64% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs, FX or any of our other products work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Cookie policy
Our websites use cookies to offer you a better browsing experience by enabling, optimising, and analysing site operations, as well as to provide personalised ad content and allow you to connect to social media. By choosing “Accept all” you consent to the use of cookies and the related processing of personal data. Select “Manage consent” to manage your consent preferences. You can change your preferences or retract your consent at any time via the cookie policy page. Please view our cookie policy and our privacy policy.
CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 64% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider.
CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 64% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs, FX or any of our other products work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Summary: The euro resurgence faded today with EURUSD trading down to its lowest levels of the week and EURGBP and EURCHF falling on the first news from the Tory leadership battle and today’s SNB meeting, respectively.
Click here for the full FX Breakout Monitor report.
One of the most notable recent developments, the resurgence in the euro across the board, stumbled somewhat today as EURUSD pushed to its lowest level this week. EURGBP pair is trading at its lows of the day after Boris Johnson’s strong showing in the first round of Tory leadership voting (earning 114 votes of the 330 total) while EURCHF came under pressure as the Swiss National Bank’s raising of its inflation forecasts and simple recycling of language on intervention against CHF strength doesn’t suggest any strong concerns about the current EURCHF level near a long-term support line not far below 1.1200.
Elsewhere, the relative spooky quiet continues for the broader USD outlook ahead of next Wednesday’s possibly pivotal Federal Open Market Committee meeting.
Breakout signal tracker
We move the stop higher for our EURAUD long to only a bit worse than breakeven after the strong follow-through higher, as any faltering at this point would suggest a false breakout.
Source: Saxo Bank
Today’s FX Breakout monitor
Page 1: many of the recent moves are in reversal mode, so today’s monitor is about as void of imminent breakout drama as we have ever seen. Still watching for the status of AUD crosses after the impressive recent EURAUD move and we note that AUDCAD has also probed new lows and is not far from the lowest levels since 2010 if it can work below 0.9130.
Source: Saxo Bank
Page 2: more signs of AUD weakness here with AUDJPY at a new cycle low today. Elsewhere, it's interesting to see USDRUB flouting the somewhat weak EM elsewhere and eyeing local lows ahead of a likely Russian rate cut tomorrow (we assume a floor in USDRUB around 64.00 if oil prices aren’t significantly higher from here). But the most interesting instrument on the table is spot gold ahead of the enormously important zone overhead from $1,350 to perhaps $1,375/oz (more below).
Source: Saxo Bank
Chart: XAUUSD
The recent gold consolidation wasn’t particularly deep and we are re-approaching the top here. The most interesting next test for the metal will be next Wednesday’s FOMC meeting, as gold will likely generally track higher if the gravy train of anticipated easing from the Fed is strongly confirmed with a surprise cut and/or profoundly dovish guidance.
The local break level is rather clear around $1,342/oz for the highest daily close and $1,350/oz psychologically, but there are a number of other peaks from the past few years making it difficult to gauge when a break has actually occurred from a longer-term perspective.
Source: Saxo Bank
REFERENCE: FX Breakout Monitor overview explanations
The following is a left-to-right, column by column explanation of the FX Breakout Monitor tables.
Trend: a measure of whether the currency pair is trending up, down or sideways based on an algorithm that looks for persistent directional price action. A currency can register a breakout before it looks like it is trending if markets are choppy.
ATR: Average True Range or the average daily trading range. Our calculation of this indicator uses a 50-day exponential moving average to smooth development. The shading indicates whether, relative to the prior 1,000 trading days, the current ATR is exceptionally high (deep orange), somewhat elevated (lighter orange), normal (no shading), quiet (light blue) or exceptionally quiet (deeper blue).
High Closes / Low Closes: These columns show the highest and lowest prior 19- and 49-day daily closing levels. Breakouts: The right-most several columns columns indicate whether a breakout to the upside or downside has unfolded today (coloured “X”) or on any of the previous six trading days. This graphic indication offers an easy way to see whether the breakout is the first in a series or is a continuation from a prior break. For the “Today” columns for 19-day and 49-day breakouts, if there is no break, the distance from the current “Quote” to the break level is shown in ATR, and coloured yellow if getting close to registering a breakout.
NOTE: although the Today column may show a breakout in action, the daily close is the key level that is the final arbiter on whether the breakout is registered for subsequent days.
The Saxo Bank Group entities each provide execution-only service and access to Analysis permitting a person to view and/or use content available on or via the website. This content is not intended to and does not change or expand on the execution-only service. Such access and use are at all times subject to (i) The Terms of Use; (ii) Full Disclaimer; (iii) The Risk Warning; (iv) the Rules of Engagement and (v) Notices applying to Saxo News & Research and/or its content in addition (where relevant) to the terms governing the use of hyperlinks on the website of a member of the Saxo Bank Group by which access to Saxo News & Research is gained. Such content is therefore provided as no more than information. In particular no advice is intended to be provided or to be relied on as provided nor endorsed by any Saxo Bank Group entity; nor is it to be construed as solicitation or an incentive provided to subscribe for or sell or purchase any financial instrument. All trading or investments you make must be pursuant to your own unprompted and informed self-directed decision. As such no Saxo Bank Group entity will have or be liable for any losses that you may sustain as a result of any investment decision made in reliance on information which is available on Saxo News & Research or as a result of the use of the Saxo News & Research. Orders given and trades effected are deemed intended to be given or effected for the account of the customer with the Saxo Bank Group entity operating in the jurisdiction in which the customer resides and/or with whom the customer opened and maintains his/her trading account. Saxo News & Research does not contain (and should not be construed as containing) financial, investment, tax or trading advice or advice of any sort offered, recommended or endorsed by Saxo Bank Group and should not be construed as a record of our trading prices, or as an offer, incentive or solicitation for the subscription, sale or purchase in any financial instrument. To the extent that any content is construed as investment research, you must note and accept that the content was not intended to and has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such, would be considered as a marketing communication under relevant laws.
Your browser cannot display this website correctly.
Our website is optimised to be browsed by a system running iOS 9.X and on desktop IE 10 or newer. If you are using an older system or browser, the website may look strange. To improve your experience on our site, please update your browser or system.