Quarterly Outlook
Macro outlook: Trump 2.0: Can the US have its cake and eat it, too?
John J. Hardy
Global Head of Macro Strategy
You can access both of our platforms from a single Saxo account.
FX Breakout Monitor: USD firm after mixed US jobs report
John J. Hardy
Global Head of Macro Strategy
Summary: An interesting setup ahead of next week as the USD stays firm near interesting breakout levels into the end of the week after a mixed US jobs report. Sterling also possibly poised for a break if it becomes clear next week that a long further Brexit decision delay awaits.
For a PDF copy of this edition, click here.
The US jobs report didn’t provide any unambiguous signals. On the positive side was the strong bounce-back in payrolls in March (+196k and a +14k revision of prior two months versus expectations of circa +175k) from the very weak February drop-out print of +20k. But a very weak +0.1% month-on-month rise in average hourly earnings has inflation watchers yawning and the participation rate dropping back -0.2% spoils the interesting bounce in that measure in February. All in all, the report keeps the Fed very “patient” and benign, while not showing the kind of weakness that points to a growth slowdown.
Today’s FX Breakout monitor
Page 1: We’re still close to that EURUSD perma-range downside breakout level – seeing is believing there. Elsewhere we note the NZDUSD and GBPUSD pairs for possible significant breaks if USD strength prevails, the former charted below.
Page 1: We’re still close to that EURUSD perma-range downside breakout level – seeing is believing there. Elsewhere we note the NZDUSD and GBPUSD pairs for possible significant breaks if USD strength prevails, the former charted below.
Page 2: AUDJPY worth a look next week if it can clear the bigger 49-day high (given the long established range) and also worth noting the jarring contrast of USDZAR looking lower while some USD/Asia EM is testing topside resistance, including USDTHB.
Gold and silver still suffering near breakout levels as yields rise (although as of this writing they have pushed back lower after two-way post-US jobs report action) and risk appetite is strong, but haven’t quite punched through to the downside – also worth watching early next week.
Gold and silver still suffering near breakout levels as yields rise (although as of this writing they have pushed back lower after two-way post-US jobs report action) and risk appetite is strong, but haven’t quite punched through to the downside – also worth watching early next week.
Chart: NZDUSD
An almost too-well defined range in NZDUSD as we await a USD direction. Will we get any notable USD/Asia or USD/Antipodean action until we see the US-China trade deal announcement, possibly not for many more weeks? In any case, early next week, we will keep an eye on the 200-day moving average and range low here in NZDUSD and note that much of it is being driven by NZD weakness more than USD strength locally – as we noted earlier today, the kiwi now has turned the corner to the downside versus the AUD after the extension of AUDNZD above 1.0500.
An almost too-well defined range in NZDUSD as we await a USD direction. Will we get any notable USD/Asia or USD/Antipodean action until we see the US-China trade deal announcement, possibly not for many more weeks? In any case, early next week, we will keep an eye on the 200-day moving average and range low here in NZDUSD and note that much of it is being driven by NZD weakness more than USD strength locally – as we noted earlier today, the kiwi now has turned the corner to the downside versus the AUD after the extension of AUDNZD above 1.0500.
Latest Market Insights
Quarterly Outlook
-
-
Quarterly Outlook
Equity Outlook: The ride just got rougher
Charu Chanana
Chief Investment Strategist
-
Quarterly Outlook
China Outlook: The choice between retaliation or de-escalation
Charu Chanana
Chief Investment Strategist
-
Quarterly Outlook
Commodity Outlook: A bumpy road ahead calls for diversification
Ole Hansen
Head of Commodity Strategy
-
Quarterly Outlook
FX outlook: Tariffs drive USD strength, until...?
John J. Hardy
Global Head of Macro Strategy
-
Quarterly Outlook
Fixed Income Outlook: Bonds Hit Reset. A New Equilibrium Emerges
Althea Spinozzi
Head of Fixed Income Strategy
-
Quarterly Outlook
Equity Outlook: Will lower rates lift all boats in equities?
Peter Garnry
Chief Investment Strategist
After a period of historically high equity index concentration driven by the 'Magnificent Seven' sto... -
Quarterly Outlook
Commodity Outlook: Gold and silver continue to shine bright
Ole Hansen
Head of Commodity Strategy
-
Quarterly Outlook
Macro Outlook: The US rate cut cycle has begun
Peter Garnry
Chief Investment Strategist
The Fed started the US rate cut cycle in Q3 and in this macro outlook we will explore how the rate c... -
Quarterly Outlook
FX Outlook: USD in limbo amid political and policy jitters
Charu Chanana
Chief Investment Strategist
As we enter the final quarter of 2024, currency markets are set for heightened turbulence due to US ...