Quarterly Outlook
Macro outlook: Trump 2.0: Can the US have its cake and eat it, too?
John J. Hardy
Global Head of Macro Strategy
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Heavy is the heart of the EURUSD bull
Michael O’Neill
FX Trader, Loonieviews.net
Summary: EURUSD bulls are not feeling the love from the European Central Bank as President Mario Draghi and company were a tad more dovish than expected.
The ECB now suggests that Eurozone rates will remain unchanged until the end of 2019 and that knocked the single currency for a loop. EURUSD is probing support at the bottom of the 1.1220-1.1540 range that has stayed unbroken since November 8, 2017. A decisive break targets further losses to 1.1090. The intraday downward pressure is intact while prices are below 1.1320, but only a move above 1.1440 would negate the bearish sentiment.
Wall Street opened lower and then extended the losses. The Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 0.88%, the S&P 500 dipped 0.76%, and the Nasdaq was down 0.94% as of 14:00 GMT. Traders ignored the modestly better than expected Jobless claims and unit labour costs data. Prices have trickled lower, in part because of a lack of fresh insight about the China/US trade talks. There are reports of “good progress being made,” but not any follow-up from officials.
Traders are content to bide their time until the release of February nonfarm payrolls data, tomorrow. It is unlikely that the results will rival January’s 304,000 gain, but any result higher than the 180,000 forecast will keep the dollar bulls happy.
USDCAD traders are hoping for a bit of clarity about yesterday’s dovish Bank of Canada statement. Deputy Governor Lynn Kennedy delivers “A Progress Report on the Economy” around 17:45 GMT, today.
Wall Street opened lower and then extended the losses. The Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 0.88%, the S&P 500 dipped 0.76%, and the Nasdaq was down 0.94% as of 14:00 GMT. Traders ignored the modestly better than expected Jobless claims and unit labour costs data. Prices have trickled lower, in part because of a lack of fresh insight about the China/US trade talks. There are reports of “good progress being made,” but not any follow-up from officials.
Traders are content to bide their time until the release of February nonfarm payrolls data, tomorrow. It is unlikely that the results will rival January’s 304,000 gain, but any result higher than the 180,000 forecast will keep the dollar bulls happy.
USDCAD traders are hoping for a bit of clarity about yesterday’s dovish Bank of Canada statement. Deputy Governor Lynn Kennedy delivers “A Progress Report on the Economy” around 17:45 GMT, today.
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