Quarterly Outlook
Fixed Income Outlook: Bonds Hit Reset. A New Equilibrium Emerges
Althea Spinozzi
Head of Fixed Income Strategy
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NY Open: USD finds its mojo
Michael O’Neill
FX Trader, Loonieviews.net
Summary: Is the British pound's loss the dollar's gain? It seems that way in the wake of today's New York bell, when USD moved higher after a lacklustre week.
The US dollar has been under pressure all week. It found its “mojo” this morning when New York opened although there wasn’t any specific reason. Our view, though?
Sterling may have been the catalyst.
GBPUSD peaked at 1.3213 on a short-lived rally from higher than expected inflation. It dropped below minor support at 1.3180 after New York opened. Prices accelerated lower until finding support at 1.3105. The rebound to 1.3130 is not impressive. It seems GBPUSD is moving in opposite direction Brexit headlines. For the past few days the Brexit news was negative, and sterling rallied. Today, GBPUSD sank after the EU said it was “ready to improve” its offer on the Irish border.
EURUSD followed GBPUSD lower, dropping from 1.1696 when New York started to 1.1660 at 1400 GMT. There isn’t a specific reason for this move suggesting it was probably a profit-taking sell-off.
The USDJPY rally appears to be stalling despite 10-year US Treasury yield inching higher to 3.07% from 3.05% where they were at the start of the session. Nevertheless, the USDJPY uptrend channel is intact while prices are above 111.80.
USDCAD has bounced from the 1.2935 low at the start of the New York trading day, on the back of the US dollar gains against the majors. Traders have ignored negative US/Canada trade talk rhetoric from President Trump and the House Majority Whip.
Wall Street is confused. The DJIA is a tad higher, the S&P 500 is flat, and the Nasdaq is in negative territory.
Oil prices remain buoyant, supported by yesterday’s comments from Saudi Arabia suggesting production may not increase to compensate for lost Iranian crude due to US sanctions.
Sterling may have been the catalyst.
GBPUSD peaked at 1.3213 on a short-lived rally from higher than expected inflation. It dropped below minor support at 1.3180 after New York opened. Prices accelerated lower until finding support at 1.3105. The rebound to 1.3130 is not impressive. It seems GBPUSD is moving in opposite direction Brexit headlines. For the past few days the Brexit news was negative, and sterling rallied. Today, GBPUSD sank after the EU said it was “ready to improve” its offer on the Irish border.
EURUSD followed GBPUSD lower, dropping from 1.1696 when New York started to 1.1660 at 1400 GMT. There isn’t a specific reason for this move suggesting it was probably a profit-taking sell-off.
The USDJPY rally appears to be stalling despite 10-year US Treasury yield inching higher to 3.07% from 3.05% where they were at the start of the session. Nevertheless, the USDJPY uptrend channel is intact while prices are above 111.80.
USDCAD has bounced from the 1.2935 low at the start of the New York trading day, on the back of the US dollar gains against the majors. Traders have ignored negative US/Canada trade talk rhetoric from President Trump and the House Majority Whip.
Wall Street is confused. The DJIA is a tad higher, the S&P 500 is flat, and the Nasdaq is in negative territory.
Oil prices remain buoyant, supported by yesterday’s comments from Saudi Arabia suggesting production may not increase to compensate for lost Iranian crude due to US sanctions.
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