Quarterly Outlook
Macro outlook: Trump 2.0: Can the US have its cake and eat it, too?
John J. Hardy
Global Head of Macro Strategy
You can access both of our platforms from a single Saxo account.
Polish currency sentiment turns bullish
Kamil Oziemczuk
Relationship Manager, Saxo Bank
This week has seen the the Polish zloty strengthen slightly against the euro, rising from 4.28 to the 4.2650-4.2750 area. USDPLN, meanwhile, closed Monday's session at 3.6548; this has changed the market trend (on a daily Ichimoku chart basis) to a downtrend and given the signal to sell.
The risk-off tone linked to the Turkish lira and its contagion into other emerging market currencies at the beginning of August weakened the zloty by 2.3% and 5.2% versus the euro and the US dollar respectively. The PLN and the Warsaw Stock Exchange are usually quite fragile to EM developments.
From a technical analysis standpoint, the Turkish lira has been stabilising after a period of high volatility for the past week and this improved the mood on the Polish zloty. This week, the lira again started a renewed fall against the dollar, but the zloty is surprisingly proving very stable this far.
After a sell signal and trend change at the close of Monday’s session, USDPLN has been consolidating. Prices are below the Ichimoku cloud, meaning that the instrument is in a downtrend. The next support areas are located at 3.64 and then 3.5950. The nearest resistance levels are at 3.6757-3.6882 (span B line).
The risk-off tone linked to the Turkish lira and its contagion into other emerging market currencies at the beginning of August weakened the zloty by 2.3% and 5.2% versus the euro and the US dollar respectively. The PLN and the Warsaw Stock Exchange are usually quite fragile to EM developments.
From a technical analysis standpoint, the Turkish lira has been stabilising after a period of high volatility for the past week and this improved the mood on the Polish zloty. This week, the lira again started a renewed fall against the dollar, but the zloty is surprisingly proving very stable this far.
After a sell signal and trend change at the close of Monday’s session, USDPLN has been consolidating. Prices are below the Ichimoku cloud, meaning that the instrument is in a downtrend. The next support areas are located at 3.64 and then 3.5950. The nearest resistance levels are at 3.6757-3.6882 (span B line).
On the other hand, EURPLN has been in a downward movement on the daily Ichimoku chart since August 16. Yesterday, the tenkan sen line (red line) crossed below the kinjun sen line (blue line) on the daily chart. This shows positive sentiment for the Polish zloty that should bring the currency pair closer to the nearest support level at 4.2450 (blue line). It is worth noting that just below the support level we have a neckline (purple line) of a massive head-and-shoulders pattern. In case of a breakout below the neckline (located at around 4.24), we would have a signal to sell with a minimum target of 4.08.
Latest Market Insights
Quarterly Outlook
-
-
Quarterly Outlook
Equity Outlook: The ride just got rougher
Charu Chanana
Chief Investment Strategist
-
Quarterly Outlook
China Outlook: The choice between retaliation or de-escalation
Charu Chanana
Chief Investment Strategist
-
Quarterly Outlook
Commodity Outlook: A bumpy road ahead calls for diversification
Ole Hansen
Head of Commodity Strategy
-
Quarterly Outlook
FX outlook: Tariffs drive USD strength, until...?
John J. Hardy
Global Head of Macro Strategy
-
Quarterly Outlook
Fixed Income Outlook: Bonds Hit Reset. A New Equilibrium Emerges
Althea Spinozzi
Head of Fixed Income Strategy
-
Quarterly Outlook
Equity Outlook: Will lower rates lift all boats in equities?
Peter Garnry
Chief Investment Strategist
After a period of historically high equity index concentration driven by the 'Magnificent Seven' sto... -
Quarterly Outlook
Commodity Outlook: Gold and silver continue to shine bright
Ole Hansen
Head of Commodity Strategy
-
Quarterly Outlook
Macro Outlook: The US rate cut cycle has begun
Peter Garnry
Chief Investment Strategist
The Fed started the US rate cut cycle in Q3 and in this macro outlook we will explore how the rate c... -
Quarterly Outlook
FX Outlook: USD in limbo amid political and policy jitters
Charu Chanana
Chief Investment Strategist
As we enter the final quarter of 2024, currency markets are set for heightened turbulence due to US ...