Quarterly Outlook
Macro outlook: Trump 2.0: Can the US have its cake and eat it, too?
John J. Hardy
Global Head of Macro Strategy
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Technical Update - USDJPY taking out July peak and is now set for higher levels
Kim Cramer Larsson
Technical Analyst, Saxo Bank
USDJPY took out July peak just at 139.39 and is set for higher levels.
How high USDJPY can go is best illustrated on the monthly chart. 142.56 is the 1.618 projection of the top to bottom of the Triangle correction from 2016 till 2021. 1.764 projection is at 146.52.
Add to that the 100% Extension of what appears to be the third wave is at 147.65 which is spot on the 1998 peak i.e. if this is wave 5 (which is certainly looks like) it could become as long as the third wave.
Usually, the third wave is the longest but in Commodities and sometimes in FX the fifth is the longest.
Nevertheless, there is no strong resistance before around 147.65, a scenario described in this analysis from June 2022: https://www.home.saxo/content/articles/forex/ta-usdjpy-21062022
On the daily chart 1.382 projection of the recent correction is 142.73, close to the bigger picture 1.618 projection at 142.56 mention above.
1.764 projection is at 146.27. Bottom line a cluster of Fibonacci Projection and Extension levels at the almost the same price levels. There is no divergence on RSI which is above 60
To reverse this bullish outlook a collapse and close below 130.38 is needed.
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